165
FXUS65 KTWC 172056
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
156 PM MST THU SEP 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
A CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FRIDAY LIMITING
THE DAILY CHANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY, THEN BE AROUND
NORMAL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SFC MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH, BUT PWATS HAVE DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY
TODAY. FORCING HAS ALSO LARGELY EXITED THE REGION, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AZ/NM BORDER. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WHILE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS, ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AND FLOW COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THIS WILL ALL BE EAST
OF TUCSON AND FOCUSED NEAR/ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE SOME MINOR ISSUES OR AN
ISOLATED AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER ANY AREAS THAT
HAVE RECEIVED HVY RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY: DRIER AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY. THIS
COULD HELP LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT AND KEEP
ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK HINTS AT MOISTURE RETURNING TO AZ AND
PERHAPS DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. MOST LIKELY
AREA WOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON, BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE FEATURES IN PLAY. IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW HIGH PRESSURE
EVOLVES OVER TEXAS AND ANY MOISTURE POSSIBLY ADVECTING NORTH
FROM MEXICO. THE EASTPAC TROPICS REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE, SO
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. IT WILL ALL COME DOWN TO TIMING
AND IF ANY LARGER SCALE TROUGHS CAN PULL MOISTURE NORTH.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WEST OF KTUS WITH LOW LEVEL CUMULUS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MTNS AROUND KDUG/KOLS THIS AFTERNOON. ISO TO
PERHAPS SCT -TSRA/SHRA FOR LOCALES EAST OF KTUS/KOLS. ANY
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING. SFC WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 12 KTS. WEEKEND OUTLOOK - MUCH
DRIER AREA WIDE WITH VFR. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FRIDAY LIMITING
THE DAILY CHANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY, THEN
BE AROUND NORMAL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN RH VALUES
MAINLY 20 TO 45 PERCENT IN THE VALLEYS AND 35 TO 65 PERCENT IN
THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
15 MPH AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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