554
FXUS65 KTWC 031549
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
849 AM MST SAT OCT 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL, WITH SOME WARMING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE SKY ISLANDS. EAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE, NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142AM MST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT
THE SURFACE AN EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL IN PLACE AND
WILL LEAD TO BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT SPEEDS
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH. ISOLATED AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHERN
COCHISE COUNTY, THE CATALINA MOUNTAINS, AND THE GILA RIVER
VALLEY COULD SEE GUSTS 40-50 MPH, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHICH IS
WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
STAYING ELEVATED THANKS TO THE DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS.
MONDAY MODELS SHOW A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE JUST TO THE
SOUTH IN SONORA FROM HURRICANE SARAH, WHICH WILL BE A FEW
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CABO. PWATS MAY INCREASE TO 1.5" IN FAR
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY, BUT AT THIS TIME NBM POPS ARE BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NO SYNOPTIC SCALE INFLUENCE
SURFACE HEATING IS NOT ENOUGH TO FORM THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE
TIME. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES STAY SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH
SOME BUILDUPS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE RIDGE
IN PLACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO CAN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS STARTING NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THRU 04/12Z.
FEW- SCT CLOUDS 5K-8K FT SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON, OTHERWISE
MAINLY SKC. EAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS 15-20 KTS AND GUSTS 25-30 KTS. SPEEDS
DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 04/00Z THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 12-18
KTS AFTER 04/06Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY, WITH RIDGE
TOPS EXPOSED TO EASTERLY FLOW SEEING 40-50 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES.
STRONGER WINDS IN EASTERN AREAS SUCH AS GRAHAM AND COCHISE
COUNTIES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN 30-40 PERCENT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ABOVE 50
PERCENT IN HIGH ELEVATION TERRAIN. SOME DRYING POSSIBLE BY MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARDIN
UPDATE...STRONGMAN
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