437
FXUS65 KTWC 040952
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
252 AM MST SUN OCT 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL, WITH SOME
WARMING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE AN EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL IN PLACE
AND WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 20-30
MPH AND GUSTS 35-50 MPH. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP AROUND
SUNRISE, PEAKING MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY EASTWARD THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE MONDAY,
GENERALLY 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES STAYING ELEVATED THANKS TO THE DOWNSLOPE
EASTERLY WINDS.
MONDAY MODELS SHOW A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE JUST TO THE
SOUTH IN SONORA FROM THE TROPICS. PWATS MAY INCREASE TO 1.5" IN
FAR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY, BUT AT THIS TIME NBM POPS ARE BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NO SYNOPTIC SCALE INFLUENCE
SURFACE HEATING IS NOT ENOUGH TO FORM THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE
TIME. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BORDER WITH SOME BUILDUPS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES (20 PERCENT) FOR PRECIP IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES STAY AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. ALSO CAN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, BUT
AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 05/12Z.
MOSTLY SKC WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON 20-30 KTS
WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS. BY 05/00Z, WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO
15-25 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY TO WINDY EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS 40-50 MPH. RIDGE TOPS AND EXPOSED AREAS CAN
SEE STRONGER GUSTS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN 30-40 PERCENT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ABOVE 50 PERCENT IN
HIGH ELEVATION TERRAIN. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS, THEN EASTERLY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AZZ503>509-511>515.
HARDIN
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