323
FXUS65 KTWC 041548
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
848 AM MST SUN OCT 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL, WITH SOME
WARMING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
EASTERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP IN STRENGTH IN THE LAST
HOUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MOUNTAIN WEATHER STATIONS HAVE
BEEN GUSTING IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AND LOWER LOCATIONS GUSTING
25 TO 30 MPH SO FAR. THE 12Z HI-RES MODELS SHOW WINDS RAMPING
UP IN STRENGTH NOW THROUGH 11 AM AND PEAKING IN STRENGTH BY MID
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE LEE SIDE
OF MOUNTAINS AND WITHIN EAST-WEST CHANNELS, SADDLES, AND
VALLEYS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM MST TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM MST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE
AN EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL IN PLACE AND WILL LEAD
TO BREEZY TO WINDY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS TODAY
WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS
35-50 MPH. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO PICK UP AROUND SUNRISE, PEAKING
MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY EASTWARD THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE MONDAY, GENERALLY 12-18 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES STAYING
ELEVATED THANKS TO THE DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS.
MONDAY MODELS SHOW A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE JUST TO THE
SOUTH IN SONORA FROM THE TROPICS. PWATS MAY INCREASE TO 1.5" IN
FAR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY, BUT AT THIS TIME NBM POPS ARE BELOW 10
PERCENT. THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NO SYNOPTIC SCALE INFLUENCE
SURFACE HEATING IS NOT ENOUGH TO FORM THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE
TIME. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BORDER WITH SOME BUILDUPS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES (20 PERCENT) FOR PRECIP IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES STAY AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK. ALSO CAN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY EASTERLY
WINDS STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, BUT
AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 05/12Z.
MOSTLY SKC WITH FEW- SCT CLOUDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON 20-30 KTS
WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS. BY 05/00Z, WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO
15-25 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY TO WINDY EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS 40-50 MPH. RIDGE TOPS AND EXPOSED AREAS CAN
SEE STRONGER GUSTS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN 30-40 PERCENT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ABOVE 50 PERCENT IN
HIGH ELEVATION TERRAIN. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS, THEN EASTERLY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ503>509-
511>515.
UPDATE...STRONGMAN
DISCUSSION...HARDIN
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