587
FXUS65 KTWC 042004
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
104 PM MST SUN OCT 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL, WITH SOME WARMING BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
AREAS EAST OF TUCSON ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES WITH CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY TO WINDY FOR FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY WITH DOUGLAS AIRPORT ALREADY REACHED A MAX GUST
OF 40 MPH AND TUCSON AIRPORT OF 41 MPH. EXPECT THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH 2PM, TO HIGHLIGHT THE
STRONGER BREEZES. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY AND INTO TOMORROW, BUT LOWER IN SPEED THAN THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NUDGING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUD
COVER FOR AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW HI-RES MODELS, SUCH AS THE HRRR, IS
ADVERTISING SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY BY ORGAN PIPE TO AJO.
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A MECHANISM TO SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
WE GET INTO THE MORE OF THE COOLER SEASON; SUN ANGLE IS THERE
AS IT WAS IN EARLY SEPTEMBER. CHANCES FOR ANY ACTIVITY IS LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT AND MAY LIKELY RESULT IN CLOUD BUILDUPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY AROUND FOR THE MOST OF THE WEEK. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS AROUND, ITS FLOW WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE AND A
MINOR SHORTWAVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN
VALLEYS.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REFORM, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF EASTERLY BREEZES STARTING ON
THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ARE CONSISTENT ON A PATTERN
CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL BE
FORMING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
THE DEPTH AND THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH. FOR NOW, THERE ARE
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BEYOND, CPC OUTLOOKS HAS 40-50% LEAN FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AND 50-60% LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 06/00Z.
MOSTLY SKC WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
THE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE
INCREASING AFTER 05/19Z AND STAYING SOUTH OF KTUS. THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL EASTERLY AT 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
AFTER 05/00Z THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY TO WINDY EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN 20-30 PERCENT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND ABOVE 40 PERCENT IN HIGH ELEVATION TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE OF MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF
TUCSON. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
EASTERLY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ503>509-
511>515.
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