856
FXUS65 KTWC 050937
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
237 AM MST MON OCT 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY EAST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE EAST
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN PIMA COUNTY TODAY AND IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WITH HURRICANE RACHEL WELL TO THE SOUTH ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO. EVEN WITH RACHEL BEING SO FAR AWAY
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
PWATS IN SONORA ARE AROUND 1.5" AND THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF STORMS, MAINLY BUILDUPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HI-RES
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK GULF SURGE THAT MAY MAKE IT TO THE
ORGAN PIPE NATIONAL MONUMENT AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL IN PLACE TODAY, ALTHOUGH
WEAKER THAN IT WAS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT BREEZY EAST WINDS
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 12-18 MPH AND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS AROUND FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK KEEPING
TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY KICK OFF ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NBM POPS ARE CURRENTLY
15-30 PERCENT. STARTING THURSDAY ANOTHER EASTERLY SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SET UP LEADING TO BREEZY EAST WINDS
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN AS A TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST. MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A TROUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT THERE IS
FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH.
THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR RACHEL, WHICH WILL BE WELL OFF THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA BY THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FURTHER SOUTH COULD BRING SARAH BACK TOWARDS BAJA, WHICH IS WHAT
THE EURO IS SHOWING. AFTER FRIDAY THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN SARAH'S TRACK. FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS TRENDING WETTER WITH
20-40 POPS STARTING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ALSO DROP TO AROUND NORMAL OR A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION
VALID THROUGH 06/12Z.
SCT CLOUDS 7K-10K FT AGL WITH SOME BKN CIGS OVER THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING AFTER 05/21Z AND STAYING SOUTH
OF KTUS. SFC WINDS WILL BE E/SE 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS
THROUGH 05/20Z, THEN DECREASE TO 7-12 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN 15-30 PERCENT IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND ABOVE 40 PERCENT IN HIGH ELEVATION TERRAIN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER WESTERN PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN EASTERLY WINDS RETURN
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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