637
FXUS65 KTWC 052100
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST MON OCT 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY EAST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE EAST THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN PIMA COUNTY TODAY AND IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED MIDLEVEL CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. THE BIGGER STORY IS CONTINUED BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN
PLACE THROUGH LATER ON THIS EVENING. WE'LL SEE A BREAK IN THE
ENHANCED BREEZINESS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEFORE WINDS
RAMP BACK UP AGAIN THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WE'RE GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH. WHAT THIS
EQUATES TO IS MINOR NUISANCE TYPE OF IMPACTS. CONSIDERING THE TIME
OF YEAR, POTENTIAL NUISANCE IMPACTS MIGHT INCLUDE PATIO FURNITURE
AND HOLIDAY DECORATIONS BEING BLOWING AROUND, SO CONSIDER SECURING
LOOSE OBJECTS AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRASH CANS AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NUDGE OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL PIMA
COUNTY (10-30%) AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY (30-60%) EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR EARLY OCTOBER HEAT OF THIS MAGNITUDE RESULTS IN
MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HEATRISK AFFECTING INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE
RATHER SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES.
SOMETHING ELSE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE
FACT THAT ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE
DISAGREEING ON THE TIMING AND OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE TROUGH. A
TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT RISING MOTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WHICH COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND STORMS IF THE TIMING
ALIGNS WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE RACHEL. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION
VALID THRU 07/00Z.
VALID THROUGH 07/00Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 7K-10K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL BE ELY/SELY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30
KTS THROUGH 05/20Z, THEN DECREASE TO 7-12 KTS OVERNIGHT, THEN
SWITCHES WLY/NELY AFT 06/21Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN 15-30 PERCENT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
ABOVE 40 PERCENT IN HIGH ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER WESTERN PIMA COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN EASTERLY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DVS/JT
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