870
FXUS65 KTWC 060922
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
222 AM MST TUE OCT 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE EAST
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS WEST OF TUCSON. EXPECT MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. NBM HAS SLIGHT POPS (15 PERCENT) BOTH
DAYS. A COUPLE HREF MEMBERS SHOW AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
FORMING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY LIKELY SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. ALSO, STARTING THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
WINDS TURN EASTERLY AND BREEZY AGAIN. RIGHT NOW SPEEDS DON'T
LOOK QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS PAST WEEKEND, LIKELY TOPPING OUT
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN
THE GILA RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WEEKEND ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING A TROUGH
SETTING UP OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGING RAIN CHANCES, COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXISTENCE OF THE TROUGH, THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS ITS STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS MORE IT
WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH HURRICANE RACHEL, WHICH IS CURRENTLY A
FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA. AS THE TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH IT SEEMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT RACHEL WILL TURN
AND HEAD EASTWARD. THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE EXACTLY
IT COULD END UP AS IT TRAVELS EAST. CURRENT ENSEMBLES SHOW
TRACKS ANYWHERE FROM OXNARD DOWN TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A
WETTER FORECAST STARTING SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT NBM POPS ARE 20-50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THRU 07/12Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS 7K-10K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND SKC
AT OTHER TIMES. SFC WINDS WILL BE E/SE 8-12 KTS THROUGH 06/19Z,
THEN VEERING TO THE NW 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER
07/04Z WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN 15-30 PERCENT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ABOVE 40
PERCENT IN HIGH ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY.
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A
20-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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