758
FXUS65 KTWC 070937
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
237 AM MST WED OCT 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE EAST
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE SHOWS SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY LEADING TO AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. SOME BUILDUPS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN COCHISE COUNTY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH TEMPERATURES
3-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
REMAIN OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ANDS WIND BECOME EASTERLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY 3-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH EASTERLY BREEZES STICKING AROUND INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS A
TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS
FOR HURRICANE RACHEL, CURRENTLY A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF
CABO. AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND EXPANDS SOUTH IT IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE RACHEL TO MAKE A 90 DEGREE TURN AND HEAD NORTHEAST. THE
CURRENT NHC FORECAST SHOWS THIS WITH RACHEL TURNING NORTHEAST
EARLY FRIDAY AND BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY SATURDAY. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE REMNANTS OF
RACHEL WILL MAKE LANDFALL. CURRENT ENSEMBLE TRACKS ARE AS FAR
NORTH AS OXNARD AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR. EVEN WITH THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY SOUTHEAST ARIZONA,
ESPECIALLY AREAS WEST OF TUCSON, WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE STARTING SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON TOP OF THIS
ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY, HELPING TO SEND EVEN MORE MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW ENSEMBLES KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE FROM
THIS SECOND SYSTEM MORE IN NEW MEXICO THAN ARIZONA. REGARDLESS,
THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH LEADING TO RAIN
CHANCES FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA STARTING SATURDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS
TIME ARE 0.25"-0.75" WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING 1"-1.5". THE
BULK OF THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY FALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH SPEEDS 15-25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND NORMAL
SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THRU 08/12Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS 8K-12K FT AGL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
BKN CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM KSAD NORTHEASTWARD. SFC
WINDS E/SE 5-10 KTS THIS MORNING BECOMING NW AT KOLS AND KTUS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN E/SE AGAIN EVERYWHERE AFTER 08/05Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN TODAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
15-30 PERCENT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ABOVE 40 PERCENT IN HIGH
ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY. A
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A
30-60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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