808
FXUS65 KTWC 072033
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
134 PM MST WED OCT 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, THEN LOWERING TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND
BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE EAST
THURSDAY, WITH SOME BREEZES ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER,
A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE SHORT TERM WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT THERE AND THAT IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS THAT REMAIN IN THE 50S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS
PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND HAS GENERATED A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP THAT WAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
REST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. WITH THE MODESTLY ELEVATED LOWER TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE, WE'LL SEE A FEW BUILD-UPS AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE SKY ISLANDS BUT HAVE KEPT ANY MENTIONABLE
PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, WE'LL
CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME
EASTERLY BREEZES KICKING IN STARTING THURSDAY. A FEW OF THE NORMALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE EAST WIND LOCALES WILL HAVE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20-25 MPH
ON FRIDAY.
THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS WILL BE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON WILL AGAIN HAVE AN INFLUENCE
ON OUR WEATHER. IN THE BROADER SCALE, A TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL RESULT IN AN ABRUPT RECURVATURE OF HURRICANE RACHEL
TOWARDS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST HAS RACHEL AS A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES FAR
NORTHERN BAJA SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE REMNANTS MOVING UP THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE
ON THE RISE FOR US SATURDAY WITH PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST
TRAJECTORY OF RACHEL WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE PATH OF THE SYSTEM AND MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER MOST OF OUR AREA MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. MEANWHILE, BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.
THEREAFTER, WE'LL STILL HAVE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY AND WE ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL MOISTURE FROM T.D. TWENTY-E NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OUR EAST IN NEW MEXICO LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT CAN ADJUST EITHER TO THE EAST
OR WEST. OTHERWISE, GIVEN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL STILL BE BREEZY AS WELL, BUT NOT AS STRONG
AS SUNDAY.
QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD STILL LOOK
MOSTLY IN THE 0.25" TO 0.75" RANGE IN THE VALLEYS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN THE SKY ISLANDS AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, THIS IS OVER A
LONGER DURATION WITH SHORTER 24 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS MOSTLY LESS THAN
0.25" EACH DAY. KEEP IN MIND WE ARE TALKING DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 HERE SO
THIS CAN OBVIOUSLY ADJUST BUT FOR THE MOST PART, AT LEAST FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM A PRECIPITATION PERSPECTIVE THIS ISN'T LOOKING
LIKE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT AT THIS TIME. THE MOST NOTABLE THING FOR
THIS EVENT WILL BE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THOSE GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
VALID THRU 09/00Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS 8K-12K FT AGL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH BKN
CIGS INTO THIS EVENING FROM KSAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY. SFC WINDS MAINLY NW AT 5-
10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING E/SE AGAIN AFTER 08/05Z THRU
END OF VALID PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
15-30 PERCENT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ABOVE 40 PERCENT IN HIGH
ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20-35
MPH. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A
30-60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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