072
FXUS65 KTWC 080947
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
247 AM MST THU OCT 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY AND FRIDAY, THEN LOWERING TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND
BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE
EAST TODAY, WITH SOME BREEZES ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND COCHISE
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, EXPECT
A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES 3 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
COCHISE COUNTY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE EASTERLY WITH SOME BREEZES IN
THE GILA RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO WEAKEN SOME AS A SMALL CLOSED LOW AHEAD OF A LARGER PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS WHAT WILL
CAUSE HURRICANE RACHEL TO BEGIN ITS NORTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARDS
BAJA. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNATINS. THE 08/06Z HRRR
IS ALSO SHOWING ISOLATED STORMS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD, LIKELY
INITIATED FROM EARLY MOISTURE ADVECTION. PWATS COULD BE AS HIGH
AS 1.25" BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS STORM
ACTIVITY IS LOW GIVEN IT'S ONLY THE HRRR SHOWING THIS AND NO
OTHER HREF OR REFS MEMBERS.
MUCH BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES BEGIN THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A
PACIFIC TROUGH. SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A PACIFIC TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE WEST COAST. AT FIRST MOVING INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THEN DIGGING SOUTH AND ABSORBING THE
AFOREMENTIONED SMALL CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY. RACHEL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND WILL
LIKELY BE POST-TROPICAL WHEN ITS REMNANTS MAKE LANDFALL LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK HAS
RACHEL MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, THEN
MOVING UP THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BEGINNING SATURDAY
WITH PWATS AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. EXPECT SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO
BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS
WITH SPEEDS 15-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON SUNDAY.
RACHEL WILL NOT BE THE ONLY TROPICAL SYSTEM TO WATCH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. NEWLY NAMED SIMON IS CURRENTLY CENTERED A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES WEST/SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO IT IS FORECASTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AND MOVE
NORTHWARD REACHING CENTRAL SINALOA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
SEND RE-ENFORCING TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
KEEPING PWATS AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. ON ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
JUST EAST IN NEW MEXICO, BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES GOING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE
0.25"-1.00" IN THE VALLEYS AND 1.0"-2.0" IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
IS MORE OF A LONG DURATION RAIN EVENT AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. BUT BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AREA WASHES COULD HAVE SOME
FLOW IN THEM DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STILL SOME SPREAD IN
THE QPF FORECAST SO EXPECT THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO FLUCTUATE
AS THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK APPROACHES.
AVIATION
VALID THRU 09/12Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS 8K-12K FT AGL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
BKN CIGS INTO THIS EVENING FROM KSAD NORTHEASTWARD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY AS WELL AS COCHISE COUNTY.
LIKELIHOOD OF ANY TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED BY TSRA IS LOW. SFC
WINDS E/SE 6-12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE GILA RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY WITH GUSTS
20-35 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN 15-30
PERCENT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ABOVE 40 PERCENT IN HIGH
ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND COCHISE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING A 30-70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY TO
WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
HARDIN
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