800
FXUS65 KTWC 082153
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
254 PM MST THU OCT 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN LOWERING TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND BELOW
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY FROM
TUCSON SOUTH AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER, EXPECT A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW CLOUD BUILD-UPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. JUST A FEW SHOWERS SO FAR ON RADAR
FOR THESE LOCALES AND THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A FAIRLY
SIMILAR FORECAST FOR FRIDAY BUT WITH A SLICK UPTICK IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WE'LL SEE A FEW MORE CLOUD BUILD-UPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
(10% TO 20%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN MAINLY FROM
TUCSON AREA SOUTH AND EASTWARD. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY LESS
THAN 0.10" SO NOT REALLY IMPACTFUL THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH NEAR ANY SHOWERS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST ALONG WITH TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WHICH WILL
RECURVE TOWARDS NORTHERN BAJA MEXICO. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS RACHEL MOVING ONSHORE AS A 50 KT
TROPICAL STORM ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
BECOMING POST-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY
MORNING. THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST 24
HOUR WHICH DOES PUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS FROM TUCSON
WESTWARD. THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG FOR
WIND GUSTS, DEPICTING A WIDESPREAD AREA IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH OVER THE
T.O. NATION AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY ON SUNDAY WITH 35-50 MPH
ELSEWHERE. THE GFS/GEFS AND OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE A BIT MORE MUTED
FOR WINDS BUT CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN OUR OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST WHICH HAS WIND GUSTS OF 35-
50 MPH. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO HOIST WIND HEADLINES FOR
SUNDAY. IT IS NOT UNPRECEDENTED THAT TROPICAL ORIGIN SYSTEMS CAN
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE NOT EXACTLY
THE SAME SETUP, AN EXAMPLE OF THIS WAS HURRICANE NORA IN 1997 THAT
CAME INTO NORTH CENTRAL BAJA AS A HURRICANE AND RESULTED IN
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM WINDS IN YUMA AS IT RACED NORTH.
OUTSIDE THE WIND THREAT ON SUNDAY, THE OTHER MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE RAINFALL. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF RACHEL AND GIVEN ENOUGH SOLAR INSOLATION, WE
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS 0.50" TO 1
INCH IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. OTHERWISE, FOR SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.05" TO 0.35" FOR THOSE
LOCALES THAT SEE RAIN.
ON SUNDAY, RAIN WILL HINGE ON 2 FACTORS...THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL AND
PRECIPITATION ALONG ITS IMMEDIATE TRACK AND OUTSIDE OF THAT, HOW
MUCH ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION WE SEE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
STILL HAS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH IS BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND-SHEAR THAT WILL BE PRESENT.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE MAIN FACTOR FOR OUR WEATHER WILL BE THE
TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. THERE WILL STILL BE ANOTHER AREA OF FORCING
AND LIFT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND THAT IS LIKELY TO BRING US MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON
MONDAY BUT CERTAINLY NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
THEN MOVE IN WEDNESDAY WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF TUCSON.
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25" TO 1 INCH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE LOWER END OF THESE AMOUNTS WILL TEND TO BE OVER
COCHISE COUNTY WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH TO WEST OF TUCSON.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND WHILE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, THEN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
VALID THRU 10/00Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS 8K-12K FT AGL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
BKN CIGS INTO THIS EVENING FROM KSAD NORTHEASTWARD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
KTUS SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ANY TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED BY TSRA LOW. SFC WINDS
E/SE 6-12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS FOR EAST
WINDS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN 15-30 PERCENT IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ABOVE 40 PERCENT IN HIGH ELEVATION TERRAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK BRINGING A 30-70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ON SUNDAY
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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