227
FXUS65 KTWC 091000
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST FRI OCT 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN LOWERING TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY FROM
TUCSON SOUTH AND EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, EXPECT A
LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR OUR AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
CHANGES FROM LAST DISCUSSION - A WIND ADV HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR
SW PINAL, CENTRAL/WESTERN PIMA CO FROM 2AM SUNDAY UNTIL 11PM
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER CHANGE WERE TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING
CAMS, SHOW AN UPWARD TREND IN CONVECTION. THE MAIN AREA WOULD BE
FROM SOUTHERN PINAL CO SOUTH TO THE BORDER. ONLY EXPECTING
LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS, BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE UNDER
CORES WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 35-40 MPH.
AS OF 200AM RACHEL IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 840MI/1350KM
SW OF SAN DIEGO, CA MOVING NE 3 KTS. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED TO 50 MPH, BUT MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 60 MPH AS
RACHEL COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. REGARDLESS OF INTENSITY
CHANGES OR SLIGHT TRACK ADJUSTMENTS, OUR IMPACTS REMAIN THE
SAME. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON RACHEL OR HURRICANE SIMON....SEE
NHC.NOAA.GOV
THERE WILL BE 3 GENERAL THREATS WITH THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THE FIRST WILL BE GUSTY
SW/S WINDS FROM CENTRAL PIMA AND SOUTHERN PINAL WEST. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH, WITH GUSTS 45-55 MPH LIKELY. THESE ARE NOT
NECESSARILY ACCOUNTING FOR ANY CONVECTION, WHICH COULD PULL
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL, THE SPC
HAS PLACED LOCATIONS FROM TUCSON/ELOY WEST TO AJO IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60MPH, WITH SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN.
THERE IS A NON ZERO LOW TORNADO THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THIS WOULD BE A LIMITED AREA OF WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY, INCLUDING LUKEVILLE, AJO, AND WHY. THIS DOES NOT
INCLUDE TUCSON. MODEST INSTABILITY, PLENTY OF SHEAR, AND
INCREASED HELICITY IN THE 0-1/0-3KM CREATES THE NON ZERO TORNADO
THREAT.
LASTLY, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON SUNDAY. GENERAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CWA ARE 0.25-1.0", WITH 1-2" IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS STORM TOTAL WILL OCCUR OVER A LONG DURATION
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED, THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE CAMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON PLACEMENT/TIMING. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD BE FROM AJO TO TUCSON SAT AFTN/EVE. LESSER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED EAST OF TUCSON TO THE NM BORDER. WHILE THERE
IS NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF THERE
IS A GREATER THREAT THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE MAIN FACTOR FOR OUR WEATHER WILL BE THE
TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. THERE WILL STILL BE ANOTHER AREA OF FORCING
AND LIFT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND THAT IS LIKELY TO BRING US MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON
MONDAY BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL THEN
MOVE IN WEDNESDAY WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF TUCSON.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, THEN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH 08Z SATURDAY/
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 9-12K FT AGL THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN CLOUDS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS ISO -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPS MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF TUS. GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND CONVECTION.
SFC WINDS E/SE AROUND 8-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS FOR EAST WINDS. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN 15-30 PERCENT IN LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND ABOVE 40 PERCENT IN HIGH ELEVATION TERRAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING A 30-70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH ON SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. HIGHEST
WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WEST.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ501-502-505.
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