319
FXUS63 KUNR 200445
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
945 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
- CALMER WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
- ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS STRENGTHENING AS IT
MERGES WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHERN MN IS CREATING A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO MORE THAN 60 MPH. OTHER THAN SOME
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SD, SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY. BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ARE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS LATER TODAY, AND DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES OVER MN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN TONIGHT AS CAA
INCREASES BEHIND ANOTHER FRONT, WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES LOOK PRETTY GOOD, BUT WILL NEED TO ADD THE
BLACK HILLS TO THE WARNING. NAM/HRRR/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
50-60 KT WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE FROM 700-750 MB. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z HREF, WHICH SHOWS A 80-90% CHANCE OF WINDS
>58 MPH OVER THE BLACK HILLS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALSO EXTENDED
THE SPEARFISH WIND ADVISORY TO GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW MAY SKIRT NW SD TONIGHT, AND SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE-
ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE BLACK HILLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE; HOWEVER,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND THEN
GRADUALLY SLACKEN AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY LIGHTER BY SUNSET. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE WINDS REMAIN STRONG.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK,
ALLOWING FOR MUCH CALMER WINDS AND A SLIGHT WARMUP THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONE HICCUP WILL BE A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY; LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS COULD BRING IN SOME FOG.
HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD TO NEAR 60 ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD.
THE FORECAST BECOMES FUZZY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE NO MAJOR
SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL, MODELS SUGGEST A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH COOLER TEMPS, BREEZY WINDS, AND PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SD PLAINS.
GUSTS OF 40 TO OVER 50 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD PLAINS, WHILE NORTHEASTERN WY, THE
BLACK HILLS, AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD MAY SEE GUSTS NEAR OR OVER 30
KTS AT TIMES. LLWS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS INTO WESTERN
SD OVERNIGHT.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-
002-012>014-024-028-029-031-032-043-044-046-047-049-072-073-
077-078.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ025-026.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...POJORLIE
AVIATION...WONG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page