970
FXUS63 KUNR 201810
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE PLAINS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
- TURNING COLDER AND UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE BLACK HILLS, WITH
WIND GUSTS THE REST OF TODAY GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 45 MPH. HAVE
ALSO DOWNGRADED THE STURGIS PIEDMONT FOOTHILLS TO AN ADVISORY
WITH WIND GUSTS THERE GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 50 MPH. WILL LEAVE THE
REST OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS IS FOR NOW, BUT EXPECT SOME
FURTHER DOWNGRADES OR CANCELLATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASE.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES 990MB LOW NEAR WINNIPEG AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A BROAD AREA OF PRESSURE RISES LOCATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS >50 MPH CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW
DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY AS NEW LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS REMAINS
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, THE STRONG WINDS AND LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, WITH LIGHTER WINDS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY WILL RESULT A COUPLE OF QUITE DAYS. SHALLOW
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY DIP INTO NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY WITH ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO NUDGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. WHILE NO BIG SNOW EVENTS APPEAR ON THE
HORIZON, WEAK FORCING ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME,
LREF IS SHOWING A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 939 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN SD PLAINS, WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SDZ001-002-012>014-031-032-043-044-046-047-049-073-077-078.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ025-026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ072.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...JOHNSON
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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