261
FXUS65 KVEF 141806
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1006 AM PST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
LITTLE WIND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL TURN UNSETTLED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
REGION WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. ALSO, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHILE SATURDAY WILL BE
THE COLDEST DAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM CLIPS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERSISTENT, GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
QUIET WEATHER PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WERE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER AT
THIS HOUR COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, SO EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES EARLY THEN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATER, ESPECIALLY IN INYO,
ESMERALDA, AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
-NICKERSON-
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
129 AM PST THU NOV 14 2024
SHORT TERM
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF LEESIDE ENHANCED MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS
OVER ESMERALDA AND MINERAL COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, AM LOOKING AT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING. LOOKING UPSTREAM OVER
THE PAC NW/EASTERN PACIFIC, SEEING EXTENSIVE AREA OF COLD-AIR
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WITHIN BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH.
HOPE EVERYONE HAS A CHANCE TO ENJOY TODAY AS CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING,
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL, ALONG WITH LITTLE WIND AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS WILL STAY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST
TODAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH THROUGH BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH.
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT/FRIDAY, WITH AN UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY FORMING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. NO ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH
BUT STILL LOOKING AT HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS FALLING ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ONCE THE COLD
AIR/DYNAMICS REACH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT THE
SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN(OROGRAPHICS). THE SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS AND WILL SHRINK DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WPC QPF QUITE PALTRY INDICATING LESS THAN 0.10" OVER THE
ENTIRE EVENT WHICH IS IN-LINE WITH LATEST DETERMINISTIC QPF OUTPUT.
ONLY HEADLINE WILL BE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
(CAZ523) FROM 7 AM - 7PM FRIDAY. THIS BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE, ECMWF
EFI SIGNAL AND NBM 24HR MAX GUST > 40 MPH PROBABILITIES ~90% FOR FT.
IRWIN AND ~70% FOR BARSTOW.
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
AS THE WEEKEND COMES TO AN END, OUR TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF
OVER FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND/OR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AT THE SAME
TIME, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH. AS A RESULT, THE N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS,
INDUCING NORTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES OF
IMPACTFUL WINDS RESIDE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN LAUGHLIN
AND NEEDLES (60% CHANCE OF 40+ MPH GUSTS).
THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY IN THE FORM
OF A BROAD TROUGH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A TONGUE OF ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS, BUT IT LARGELY DISSIPATES BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. LATEST NBM POPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY 10-20%
IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. OTHER
THAN THE LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES, THIS SYSTEM ALSO BRINGS A
REINFORCING SHOT OF GUSTY AND COOL CONDITIONS. IMPACTFUL WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE (10-40% CHANCES) ON MONDAY, BUT THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM HAVE A BETTER SHOT OF IMPACTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
PARTICULARLY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS BECAUSE THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF US WHILE A HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST, RESULTING IN A TIGHTENED N-S
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL DRIVE NORTHERLY WINDS FOR A
FEW DAYS, WITH 50-70% CHANCES OF 40+ MPH GUSTS IN THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS INLAND MID-WEEK, WINDS GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WHILE TEMPS WARM.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR
A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY, WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND
8KT. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN WINDS NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
INCREASING WINDS, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE TIMING.
HOWEVER, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY, WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AROUND 10-15KT AND INTERMITTENT HIGHER GUSTS NEAR AND JUST
BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
UNLIMITED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WITH
BASES AROUND 25KFT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KBIH WILL
SEE AN UPTICK IN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 18KT. GUSTS
ARE PROGGED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, THOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. KDAG AND KEED WILL SEE A SUBTLE INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS AFTER SUNSET AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN INCREASING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM, BUT ELSEWHERE, DIURNAL TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 20KFT-25KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...PIERCE
LONG TERM...WOODS
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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