380
FXUS65 KVEF 161733
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
933 AM PST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITS OVER OUR REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
CLIPS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERSISTENT, GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL CONDITIONS WITH NORTH BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS DRAPED OVER THE MOJAVE
DESERT REGION AND DIGGING TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA. NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST TRENDS DETAILED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION
1211 AM PST
SHORT TERM
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MIDNIGHT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED
THE TROUGH AXIS DIRECTLY OVER OUR CWA, ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLOUDS WAS BLANKETING MOST
OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS. FARTHER NORTHWEST,
CLOUDS WERE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE, AND ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
MISSING REPORTING SITES. SURFACE OBS SHOWED SOME GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IN INYO COUNTY AND LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. ON AVERAGE,
TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO, AND
DEWPOINTS WERE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE BREAKING UP IN THE
MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO DROP
LIFTED INDICES TO 0 TO +1 UNDER THE -27C 500 MB COLD POOL, KICKING
OFF SHOWERS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AGAIN, POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR WEST
AS THE MOJAVE NATIONAL PRESERVE. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS
THE SUN SETS. TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, EXPECT DRY WEATHER AS
THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM RAPIDLY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING SUNDAY (MORE NOTICEABLE AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS).
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
A BROAD TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PASS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL RETURN
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN BEFORE THE SYSTEM
PUSHES EASTWARD AND PHASES WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WITH RESULTANT LONGWAVE TROUGHING SETTING UP TO OUR
EAST, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALLOWED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE-
AVERAGE BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY BY MID-MORNING. WINDS INCREASE
TO OVER 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SLIGHT SHIFT TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS SWITCH BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY ALSO ENTAIL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD THESE WINDS DEVELOP. FEW TO SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS
PASS OVER THE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THIS MORNING,
INTENSIFYING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE KDAG AND KEED,
WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS UNDER 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING BUT SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, EXCEPT FOR KDAG
WHERE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE WEST. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE AWAY FROM
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTERWARDS, ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY OUT OF REACH OF ANY TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MORGAN
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...MELTZER
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