030
FXUS65 KVEF 181713
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
914 AM PST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL KICK UP WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BARSTOW AREA
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL AREAWIDE. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH BY SUNDAY, BRINGING INCREASED WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES,
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW.
UPDATE
WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY HIT 40 MPH IN A COUPLE OF MORE
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. WE WILL BE TAKING A
CLOSER LOOK AT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE FALLING TO
NEAR FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MIDNIGHT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED
MOST OF THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF CLOUDS. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS WERE MOVING AWAY TO THE
EAST WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. LOWER CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
RAIN EXTENDED FROM MONTEREY THROUGH MODESTO, TAHOE, AND TRUCKEE, AND
WERE MOVING EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOWED ISOLATED GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA, AND TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
ON AVERAGE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE BAND OF CLOUDS AND
PRECIP, WHICH IS VERY UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT OVER THE SIERRA TO AFFECT
OUR AREA, WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT OUR AREA
WITH WIND. THE WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SIERRA WILL WORK THEIR WAY
SOUTH TO THE BARSTOW AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE THEY WILL GET AN
ASSIST FROM THE TERRAIN. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA,
BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS WILL
BE ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED, SO WILL MESSAGE IT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. AS
THE PARENT LOW ZIPS OFF TO THE EAST, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE
UNIMPRESSIVE, SO THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES. NV ZONE 16 (NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY) HAS NOT YET HAD
ITS FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON, AND IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS THERE MIGHT
SHUT DOWN JUST IN TIME TO ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY
MORNING, SO HOISTED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE END-OF-GROWING-SEASON
FREEZE.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS, AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THIS ADDED
MIXING, SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
READINGS AROUND 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH, WE WILL START TO SEEING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEE ANY REAL CHANCE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE DOWNWARD
TREND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
MAY FAVOR THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST, HOWEVER THERE IS A VERY HIGH
PROBABILITY (90% OR HIGHER) FOR WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN UNDER 8KT
THROUGH 00Z TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 03Z
AND 06Z. MOST LIKELY, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TO
AROUND 10KT WHEN THE WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD
QUICKLY TAPER OFF AFTER AN HOUR OR TWO AND SETTLE IN TO NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AT AROUND 8KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(10%) THAT NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OVER 10KT PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT
BUT CURRENT TAF REFLECTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
VALLEY WILL SEE ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KT THROUGH THE
NIGHT, INCLUDING AT KVGT.
THE NORTH WIND AROUND 8KT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,
THOUGH WIND DIRECTION MAY START TO VEER NORTHEAST BY 18Z TUESDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. KBIH WILL SEE
NORTH WINDS INCREASE AROUND 18Z TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT INCLUDING KDAG
AFTER 12Z WHERE WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY (70% PROBABILITY) GUST OVER
30KT, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. GUSTS AROUND 25KT WILL CONTINUE AT
KDAG THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GUSTS END AROUND 06Z BUT ELEVATED
WEST WINDS AT 10-15KT PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY GUST TO AROUND 20KT IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH KEED AND KIFP
AROUND 09Z BUT SHOULD BE AT 10KT OR LESS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 15
KFT MSL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...CZYZYK
SHORT TERM...MORGAN
LONG TERM...GORELOW
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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