052
FXUS65 KVEF 190915
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
115 AM PST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WILL BRING A WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING INCREASED WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIDNIGHT SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED SCATTERED CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR AREA AND
CLEAR SKIES FARTHER NORTHEAST. SURFACE OBS SHOWED BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WAS PASSING
THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT. THANKS IN PART TO THE WIND, TEMPERATURES
WERE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE WIND SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY, WHICH
WILL LEAD INTO THE FIRST FORECAST PROBLEM - WILL THERE BE AN END-OF-
GROWING-SEASON FREEZE IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING? THE
MET, MAV, AND ECS MOS ALL SHOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR KHND AND
KLSV, BUT THE NBM PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 10% FOR EACH STATION.
RECENT MOS VERIFICATION SHOWS A COLD BIAS, AND IF THIS BIAS IS
APPLIED TO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING FORECASTS, IT SUGGESTS LOWS OF 34
AND 33 FOR KHND AND KLSV. FURTHERMORE, THE HREF SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WHICH COULD MESS UP RADIATIONAL
COOLING POTENTIAL AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR THESE REASONS, DID NOT ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING. DAY SHIFT WILL
NEED TO TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT THIS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK FOR MOST SITES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BE OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK PROVIDING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AREAWIDE,
AND RAIN AND SNOW FROM THE SIERRA INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT LOCATIONS WILL BE SHOWERY. AT THIS POINT
THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN IN LAS VEGAS IS LESS THAN 10% ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND 10 TO 20% ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE GEFS INDICATING THE STRONGEST WINDS
THEN, BUT THE EPS KEEPS STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS LINGERING THROUGH
SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASED MIXING, SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH READINGS AROUND 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. ALL IN ALL, THE ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND TIMING.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
CONTINUED NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE DONE WITH GUSTS
ENDING THIS MORNING AND WIND SPEEDS OF 8-10KT PERSISTING THROUGH THE
MORNING. AFTER 16Z-17Z, WINDS WILL DROP UNDER 8KT AND WILL REMAIN
UNDER 8KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SET
UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TYPICAL LIGHT OVERNIGHT WIND PATTERNS
RETURN AFTER SUNSET. OCCASIONAL FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 25KFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AT 15KFT-
20KFT MOVE IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN
WINDS UNDER 10KT, DRY CONDITIONS, AND VFR SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS ABOUT A
50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 25KT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE
NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OVER 20KT ARE
LIKELY (80% PROBABILITY OR GREATER) AT KEED AND KIFP FROM 15Z
THROUGH ABOUT 21Z BEFORE WINDS TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS BY TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL OVERNIGHT
WIND DIRECTION OTHER THAN KIFP WHERE CONTINUED NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 8-10KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
INCREASING SCT-BKN CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AROUND
15KFT-20KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MORGAN
LONG TERM...GORELOW
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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