598
FXUS65 KVEF 192044
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1244 PM PST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK BUT DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ARE
EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACK RETREATS TO THE NORTH. BY THIS
WEEKEND, INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SIERRA, WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN OVER THE COMING DAYS
WITH A MODEST WARMING TREND EXPECTED AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL EXIST TO OUR NORTH WITH A VERY STRONG
SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS AIMED AT THE PACNW AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTS. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN DEFLECTED TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER, PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
EASTWARD AND CLOUD OUR SKIES AT TIMES. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF TOUCHING FREEZING IN THE COLDER POCKETS
OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY NEAR HENDERSON
AIRPORT AND NEAR NELLIS AFB, HOWEVER, MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES TOO COOL THE PAST WEEK, AND INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD WORK TO OFFSET THE OTHERWISE LIGHT
WINDS AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS SUCH, HAVE
FORGONE ANY FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY
AND DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE COLDER PARTS OF THE
VEGAS METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS HEIGHTS CLIMB OVER THE AREA.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
ACTIVE JET STREAM FOCUSED INTO THE PACNW AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEK WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING A WEAKENING
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO SAG INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SIERRA BY
SATURDAY. SOME LIMITED QUANTITIES OF SPILLOVER PRECIPITATION MAY
EVEN SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN MOJAVE DESERT.
THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON FINER DETAILS BUT A SECONDARY,
STRONGER WAVE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SOCAL COAST SPREADING A DEEPER
PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AGAIN, MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
BE INTERCEPTED BY THE SIERRA AND SOCAL COASTAL RANGES, BUT SOME
MINOR SPILLOVER PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
DESERTS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. BUT OVERALL
- BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY, WHERE
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON WILL BE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 8000 FEET IN THE SIERRA, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO
THE OWENS VALLEY.
ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, INCREASINGLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH HEIGHTS REMAINING
ELEVATED AND INCREASED MIXING EXPECTED SATURDAY THANKS TO THE
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON
SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY COOLING SUNDAY ONWARD. HOWEVER, WITH
THE PACIFIC ORIGINS ON THE INCOMING AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 8 KTS. THROUGH THE
LATE-AFTERNOON TOWARD SUNSET, WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KTS. FEW-SCT AOA 20 KFT EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT WHEN CIGS WILL INCREASE TO BKN-OVC THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT LIGHT AND DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS UNTIL BREEZY SOUTH WINDS PICK UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT AOA 20 KFT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT WHEN CIGS WILL INCREASE TO BKN-OVC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...OUTLER
AVIATION...SOULAT
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