713
FXUS65 KVEF 271012
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
210 AM PST FRI DEC 27 2024
SYNOPSIS
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA GOING INTO THE NEW YEAR.
A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA AND GREAT BASIN TODAY, SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY NEW YEAR'S EVE.
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
SOUTHERN SIERRA.
UPDATE
GUSTY WEST WINDS HAVE STARTED EARLIER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WITH THE BARSTOW/DAGGETT AIRPORT ALONG
WITH A FEW OTHER SITES RECORDING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH.
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND STARTED THE WIND ADVISORY
EARLY WHICH WILL GO THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
1235 AM PST FRI DEC 27 2024
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
EXTENSIVE SWATHS OF DENSE CIRRUS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDES FROM OREGON/NORCAL ACROSS THE SIERRA AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE STRONG
WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY DECREASING
SPEEDS INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA RIDGETOPS AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPE INTO THE OWENS VALLEY. WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO
50 MPH (60-90% PROBABILITY). A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE ZONES BETWEEN 7 AM THIS MORNING AND 7 PM THIS EVENING.
A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND
ALSO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NEVADA UNTIL ABOUT 18Z TODAY. THERE IS
ABOUT A 40% CHANCE OF 1" OF SNOW AT ASPENDELL. THERE IS A 50-60%
CHANCE OF A DUSTING OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET IN FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN,
BUT LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF 1" OF ACCUMULATION.
THE PERSISTENT MEAN RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES BRIEFLY REBUILDS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ANOTHER SHALLOW PACIFIC TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO SWING INLAND AND BRUSH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS EFFECTS APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL FOR MOST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PERIODS OF DENSE HIGH CLOUDS AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA AND ASPENDELL WILL SEE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A DUSTING
OF SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MEAN RIDGE THEN REDEVELOPS MONDAY AND MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE SHIELD US FROM ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS A POTENTIAL
INSIDE SLIDER THAT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
SLIDING DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEVADA NEW YEAR'S
EVE... WHICH WOULD FAVOR NORTH BREEZES. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
INDICATE A MORE DOMINANT RIDGE. TWO-THIRDS OF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT
THIS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD MEAN FAIRLY CALM WINDS FOR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THE NBM IS PICKING UP A
LITTLE MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS AND SHOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES
DIPPING 5-8 DEGREES BETWEEN MONDAY AND NEW YEAR'S DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS EVOLVE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
LIGHT, MAINLY DIURNAL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 20K FEET.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS TO
THE SIERRA WHERE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE CREST AND UPPER SLOPES. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 KNOTS THIS
MORNING, PEAKING MID-DAY AND DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, LOOK FOR LIGHT, MAINLY DIURNAL WINDS ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY TAF SITES ALONG WITH KEED AND KIFP. SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER
THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS MORNING, WITH
ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION. ELSEWHERE, LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS, WINDS, OR WEATHER EXPECTED
SATURDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...GORELOW
DISCUSSION...ADAIR
AVIATION...GORELOW
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