984
FXUS65 KVEF 272007
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1207 PM PST FRI DEC 27 2024
SYNOPSIS
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA GOING INTO THE NEW YEAR.
A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA AND GREAT BASIN TODAY, SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY NEW YEAR'S EVE.
GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
SOUTHERN SIERRA.
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING WERE REPORTED IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WHERE WEST WINDS
WERE STILL GUSTING 35 TO 45 MPH, INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE I-15
NEAR BARSTOW, CA. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AREA AS WINDS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL AND RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING DUST
AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE, LIGHTER WINDS AND NO IMPACTS WERE REPORTED.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THAT WILL SHIFT
EVERYTHING EASTWARD. WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE
BETTER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST, WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM PT THIS EVENING, THOUGH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
ARE THROUGH ABOUT 3 PM OR 4 PM. WILL NEED TO WATCH WIND TRENDS AND
HOW LONG IMPACTS LINGER AS WINDS MAY DROP BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS
EARLIER THAN THE SET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIME. CONTINUED LIGHT
WINDS ELSEWHERE. ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND QUICK
HITTING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS- IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING
TO DEVELOP. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW IN NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED
TO THE TERRAIN AND ANYTHING THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT SO
NO PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. BY THIS EVENING, THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END AND IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER THE REGION FOR SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY DESPITE THESE HEIGHT RISES AS
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STREAMING INTO THE REGION AND LIMITS DAYTIME
HEATING.
THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN US SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK THE RIDGE BACK DOWN.
THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM, BUT THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT
THE WIND AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS ALL MODELS LIMIT MOISTURE
WHICH WILL THUS LIMIT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE SIERRA
PEAKS, BUT OVERALL IT WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER SOLUTION AS SHOWN ON THE GEFS WOULD RESULT IN A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS A BETTER CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS. NBM
CURRENTLY SHOWS A 50% OR GREATER PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH IN WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS WELL AS THE OWENS VALLEY ON
SUNDAY WHEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD BE STRONGEST. ON MONDAY, WINDS
WOULD SHIFT NORTHERLY AND THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS WOULD
THEN FOCUS ON THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, HOWEVER CURRENT NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN THAT AREA ARE 30% OR
LESS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY WITH WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK AGAIN MONDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ON NORTH WINDS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
AFTER MONDAY, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEW
YEARS EVE AND NEW YEARS DAY AS MODELS VARY IN HOW QUICKLY THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION IMPACTS DURING THE TIME PERIOD, BUT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IT WILL BE COLDER ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS
ALSO NO EXPECTED...BUT THE EXACT TEMPERATURE FOR THE NEW YEARS
PERIOD IS YET TO BE DETERMINED.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS,
WINDS, OR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A RISK
OF EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS REACHING EIGHT TO 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE SIERRA
CREST AND IN THE BARSTOW AREA WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS, WINDS, OR WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF AROUND 40 KNOTS OVER THE SIERRA
CREST, WHERE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW AND ASSOCIATED TERRAIN OBSCURATION
WILL ALSO BE CONCERNS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...MORGAN
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