786
FXUS65 KVEF 290407
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
805 PM PST SAT DEC 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA GOING INTO THE NEW YEAR.
A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF INYO, SAN BERNARDINO, AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES. QUIET
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE AND NEW YEAR'S DAY, ASIDE FROM
BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
THIN VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE REGION AND WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY
THINNING OUT AND BECOMING MORE FOCUSED IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE
SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TOMORROW AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN, DRAGGING A BELT OF 70-90KT WESTERLY WINDS AT 500MB INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SIERRA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND NEAR DYER TOMORROW. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES NEEDED.
-OUTLER-
SHORT TERM
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MIDDAY SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED
CIRRUS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BLANKETING MUCH OF OUR CWA. SURFACE
OBS SHOWED LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO, EXCEPT IN WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, WHERE
WINDS WERE MUCH STRONGER AND MIXING WAS MUCH DEEPER YESTERDAY. THE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHALLOWER MIXING TODAY HAD CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER IN THE BARSTOW AND MORONGO BASIN AREAS
THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WAS
KEEPING THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF OUR AREA, WHERE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PASS BY ON SUNDAY. AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS, THE MAIN
EFFECTS WE WILL SEE FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE WINDS - ONLY A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA, AND RAIN CHANCES AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE NEARLY ZERO. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE SIERRA CREST LATE SUNDAY MORNING, LEADING TO A RISK OF
DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE OWENS VALLEY PUSHING ACROSS HIGHWAY 395 IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OWENS
VALLEY LOOKS GOOD, AND HAVE EXPANDED IT TO COVER THE SIERRA AS WELL.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN MONO COUNTY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING, LEADING TO A RISK OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS REACHING
DOWN INTO THE DYER AREA. THUS, THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA LOOKS
GOOD AS WELL. ALSO AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT WINDS IN
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WILL MOST LIKELY FALL JUST SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH ANY GUSTS OVER 40 MPH LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED
IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME. THE INCREASED WIND SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE MOJAVE DESERT, PARTICULARLY IN
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, WHERE BARSTOW-DAGGETT COULD THREATEN
THE DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 76 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY BETWEEN A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK
ACROSS THE PACNW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
HELP COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT WILL OTHERWISE HAVE A
LIMITED INFLUENCE ON OUR REGIONAL WEATHER. THEREAFTER, A LARGER HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WEST, ENSURING A DRY
AND MILD START TO 2025.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
DIURNAL WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS A
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF WINDS INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR GREATER BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AT
OR ABOVE 20 KFT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA...TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE LATE TOMORROW
MORNING IN OWENS VALLEY AND THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, INCLUDING
KBIH AND KDAG. PEAK GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 20 KFT
WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MORGAN
LONG TERM...OUTLER
AVIATION...MELTZER
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