484
FXUS65 KVEF 290908
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
107 AM PST SUN DEC 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA GOING INTO THE NEW YEAR.
A DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF INYO, SAN BERNARDINO, AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES. QUIET
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE AND NEW YEAR'S DAY, ASIDE FROM
BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
SHORT TERM
TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION, THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE. WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN
THE SIERRA AND GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AT PLACES LIKE ASPENDELL
WHICH SITS AT 8,500'. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE WIND. THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A 150-160KT JET PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA AND A BELT OF 70-90KT 500MB WEST WINDS PUSHING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SIERRA. THIS SETUP WILL BRING SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SIERRA INCLUDING THE
OWENS VALLEY AND WESTERN ESMERALDA COUNTY, INCLUDING DYER AND THE
FISH LAKE VALLEY. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ADDED THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT INTO THE WIND ADVISORY AS PLACES
AROUND BARSTOW, FORT IRWIN, AND BICYCLE LAKE WILL LIKELY SEE WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH. WITH HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN, WE COULD SEE SOME
AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST. DUE TO MUCH
BETTER MIXING TODAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY WITH
HIGHS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD IN PLACE ON MONDAY WITH SUBTLE
RIDGING TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST BENEATH AN ACTIVE STORM
TRACK TO OUR NORTH. A SMALL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE FLOW ON
TUESDAY BUT ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES, IT
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL INFLUENCE. THEREAFTER, RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE WEST, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES. LOOKING BEYOND, AN EVEN STRONGER RIDGE IS
FAVORED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND HEADING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z.
ONCE THE WINDS DEVELOP, OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY, AND
THERE IS A 25% CHANCE OF SEEING A GUST TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND TURN NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY THE MORE TYPICAL NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20KFT AGL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE VALLEY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT REGIONAL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT NEAR
KDAG AND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA IN THE OWENS VALLEY,
WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE AT THE VEGAS AREA TAF SITES, BUT
SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25 KNOTS. WINDS IN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15KNOTS OR LESS INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20KFT AGL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN
ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...OUTLER
AVIATION...PLANZ
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