892
FXUS65 KVEF 300816
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1216 AM PST MON DEC 30 2024
SYNOPSIS
DESPITE TEMPERATURES PULLING CLOSER TO NORMAL AROUND THE
NEW YEAR, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR MOSTLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BREEZY NORTH WINDS LINGER
IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT LIGHT BREEZES
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH TUESDAY.
IT WAS A GUSTY END TO THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. THE SHORTWAVE THAT INDUCED THOSE WINDS IS QUICKLY
PULLING AWAY, ALLOWING BREEZES TO WEAKEN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
BEHIND IT, WE'RE LEFT IN A WNW FLOW PATTERN TO END 2024. THIS ALLOWS
BREEZY NORTH WINDS TO LINGER AROUND THE LAUGHLIN-NEEDLES AREA, WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. TEMPERATURE-WISE, WE'LL COOL A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY, DRAWING US CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES. THE YEAR ENDS ON A DRY
NOTE WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY MIDWEEK
WITH AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE PACNW.
WE WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO TRANSIENT HIGH CLOUDS UNDER THIS
PATTERN, BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAVORED ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. A SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
THE PACNW AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY, AND RECENT GFS MEMBERS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN OTHER MODEL
CAMPS. THESE STRONGER SOLUTIONS COULD BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF SIERRA
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHILE WEAKER
SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL IN
THE SIERRA AND NORTHERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA. A RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE SUNDAY ONWARD, HOWEVER, LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ALSO
TENDED TO SHIFT THIS RIDGE AXIS FURTHER WEST, RESULTING IN A MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION AND LEAVING US EXPOSED TO BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS AND INSIDE SLIDERS. SO IN SUMMARY, LESS CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DETAILS LATE WEEK AND BEYOND, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
AFTER A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
MORNING, WINDS WILL FOLLOW MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN 8 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS, AND THERE IS A LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING ANY GUSTS OVER 15 KNOTS. HIGH
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20KFT AGL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE VALLEY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT LOWERING IN BASES TO AROUND
15KFT AGL BY LATE EVENING. NONE OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN
ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND KIFP. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KEED, BUT GUSTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 25
KNOTS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, EXPECT WINDS TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS WITH SPEEDS REMAINING 12 KNOTS OR LESS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BASES SHOULD REMAIN AOA
15KFT AGL AND SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...WOODS
LONG TERM...OUTLER
AVIATION...PLANZ
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