340
FXUS65 KVEF 310512
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
912 PM PST MON DEC 30 2024
SYNOPSIS
DESPITE TEMPERATURES PULLING CLOSER TO NORMAL AROUND THE
NEW YEAR, THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR MOSTLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BREEZY NORTH WINDS LINGER
IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT LIGHT BREEZES
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
UPDATE
WINDS HAVE CALMED ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
1231 PM PST MON DEC 30 2024/
SHORT TERM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
IN GENERAL, THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT QUIET WEATHER WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT IN
ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY,
WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. THIS
AFTERNOON, NORTH WINDS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WERE ABOUT 10 TO
20 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND LAUGHLIN, NV. WITH THE SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE A BIT
STRONG ON TUESDAY AS WELL. GIVEN THE WINDS TODAY, NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD WIND IMPACTS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NBM ENSEMBLES
SHOW ABOUT A 30%-40% PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S CENTERED AROUND THE TYPICAL WINDY AREA AROUND
LAUGHLIN WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED BOATING
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE MOHAVE AND NEAR
LAUGHLIN WHERE A FEW STRONGER GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
OTHERWISE NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND NO NEED FOR WIND HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. ON WEDNESDAY, WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE QUICK
HITTING WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BE
NEAR NORMAL, THOUGH WESTERN REGIONS WARMING SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK HEIGHT RISES START MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
MIDWEEK WITH AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE PACNW. WE WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO TRANSIENT HIGH CLOUDS
UNDER THIS PATTERN, BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAVORED ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. A SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH INTO THE PACNW AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY, AND
RECENT GFS MEMBERS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE
THAN OTHER MODEL CAMPS. THESE STRONGER SOLUTIONS COULD BRING
ANOTHER BOUT OF SIERRA SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WHILE WEAKER SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND
ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE SIERRA AND NORTHERN REACHES OF
FORECAST AREA. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS WAVE SUNDAY
ONWARD, HOWEVER, LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TENDED TO SHIFT THIS
RIDGE AXIS FURTHER WEST, RESULTING IN A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
OUR REGION AND LEAVING US EXPOSED TO BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS AND
INSIDE SLIDERS. SO IN SUMMARY, LESS CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
LATE WEEK AND BEYOND, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
NORTHEASTERLY WIND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE EVENING AND SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. SPEEDS
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW TO SCT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASS OVER THE AREA WITH BASES AS LOW AS 15 KFT
OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS
AT KEED AND BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS AT KIFP. THESE WINDS SHOULD
LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARRIVES LATE
TOMORROW MORNING. A DIURNAL WIND PATTERN WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AS LOW AS 15 KFT PASS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...SOULAT
SHORT TERM...NICKERSON
LONG TERM...OUTLER
AVIATION...MELTZER
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