786
FXUS65 KVEF 160336
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
735 PM PST SAT FEB 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CALM DOWN
TONIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS TO THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND MOJAVE DESERT EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AND PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE
AFTER SUCH A MILD AND PLEASANT DAY, IT'S HARD TO BELIEVE
THAT THIS TIME YESTERDAY WE HAD STRONG NORTHWEST OUTFLOW WINDS
PUSHING THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THIS MILD WEATHER WILL BE
STICKING AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE CONTINUE TO FIND
OURSELVES UNDER DRY WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE WE
WILL SEE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK,
WINDS WILL BE THE ONLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER THAT ACCOMPANY THEM AS THEY
WILL EITHER HAVE A DRY INLAND TRAJECTORY OR THE SIERRA WILL
INTERCEPT THE MOISTURE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY HAVE DECREASED AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE NIGHT. DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS RESUME
TOMORROW, WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH BASES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE....WINDS HAVE DECREASED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LINGERING LIGHT NORTH WINDS
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR KIFP. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BUT WITH BASES ABOVE 10KFT AGL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
302 PM PST SAT FEB 15 2025.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER TODAY SHOULD CALM
DOWN TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY. THIS
PLACEMENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, WHICH FOR LAS VEGAS MEANS ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO REINFORCE DRY CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE, BUT MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
ON MONDAY, FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS PATTERN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
INTERIOR TRAJECTORY OF THIS FEATURE AND ABSENCE OF MOISTURE MEANS
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A
50 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH BETWEEN
BULLHEAD CITY AND LAKE HAVASU CITY ACCORDING TO THE NBM. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S FOR LAS VEGAS.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
AS THE INSIDE SLIDER CLEARS OUT OF THE REGION, WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER RIDGE SHIFT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
WITH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA INTERCEPTING THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS MID-WEEK SYSTEM CLEARS OUT OF
THE REGION, WE WILL FIND OURSELVES ON THE LEE SIDE OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. THIS UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR ADDITIONAL INSIDE SLIDERS TO
DROP INTO THE REGION AS THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM EXITS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THIS SECOND INSIDE SLIDER (3RD DISTURBANCE OF THE WEEK),
ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...STESSMAN
AVIATION...OUTLER
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...STESSMAN
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