477
FXUS65 KVEF 161624
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
824 AM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECT TODAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND MOJAVE DESERT EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN
AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK AND PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE
TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE QUIET, FEATURING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S IN LAS VEGAS. NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WON'T BRING MUCH OF A CHANGE
WEATHER- WISE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE REGION AS IT
SLIDES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THERE IS NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE SO NO PRECIPITATION
WILL DEVELOP. INCREASES BREEZY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS
THIS SYSTEMS PASSES THROUGH. ON MONDAY, THE FOCUS FOR WINDS WILL BE
THROUGH THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. OVERALL, WINDS ON MONDAY DO NOT LOOK OVERLY
ROBUST. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE ECMWF DO TOUCH 40 MPH GUSTS AT
KDAG MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MOST REMAIN CLOSER TO 30-35 MPH.
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ON NBM ARE RATHER HIGH, AROUND
80% THROUGH THE BARSTOW, CA CORRIDOR, SO WIND IMPACTS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. HOWEVER, SYNOPTICALLY THE BEST LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
SHORT LIVED AND DONT PEAK UNTIL AFTER SUNSET MONDAY EVENING, SO
LEANING TOWARDS THE WIND THREAT BEING ISOLATED AND A LIMITED
TIMEFRAME. WILL SEE WHAT HI-RES MODELS AND THE HREF SHOW AS WE WILL
BE MOVING INTO THAT TIME DOMAIN TODAY FINE TUNE DETAILS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH GUSTS
TOPPING OUT AT 20 MPH AT MOST.
ON TUESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWEST, NORTH WINDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE MODELS DO DROP A STRONG VORT-
MAX THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHICH WOULD HELP KICK WINDS UP TUESDAY. OTHER MODELS ARE LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS FEATURE, AND OVERALL ALL MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
BUT NO OVERLY IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT WIND FORECAST AND IMPACTS TUESDAY. THE AREA HIGHEST AT
RISK FOR WIND IMPACTS WOULD BE THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE NORTH
WINDS WOULD BE ENHANCED AND THE BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION WOULD BE
SITUATED IF THAT SCENARIO PLAYED OUT. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS THERE ARE ABOUT 60%-70%, WHICH JIVES WITH THE
CURRENT METEOROLOGICAL THINKING AND UNCERTAINTY, ELSEWHERE,
PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN 50% FOR 40 MPH GUSTS, AND GIVEN THE LACK
OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OR LOW LEVEL JET, AGREE WITH THE LOW
TO MINIMAL RISK FOR WIND IMPACTS OUTSIDE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
AFTER A MILD SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY, MOVING INLAND BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
ITERATIONS OF THE FORECAST WHERE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING INLAND FURTHER SOUTH AND THEN
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN, ONLY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA? IT
MEANS THAT THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SMIDGE BREEZIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. BREEZY WINDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH CLEARS OUT OF THE
REGION AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
DIURNAL
WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH BASES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 15KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT MOST TAF SITES TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING NORTH WINDS AFFECTING IFP WHERE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KTS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.
PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH BASES ABOVE
12KFT AGL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...MELTZER
SHORT TERM...NICKERSON
LONG TERM...STESSMAN
AVIATION...OUTLER
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