385
FXUS65 KVEF 162024
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1224 PM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY LATE ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO CALM CONDITIONS AND PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO NEVADA AND UTAH.
FIRST, ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BRING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS TO WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN A 75
PERCENT CHANCE OR GREATER OF REACHING 40 MPH IN THE EVENING, MAINLY
EAST OF BARSTOW. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ELEVATED SURFACE
WINDS LASTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT, ATMOSPHERIC DECOUPLING MAY BRING AN
END TO ELEVATED WINDS EARLIER IN THE EVENING. NO PLANS ON ISSUING
WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE ISOLATED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
NATURE INDICATED SO FAR, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE WITH UPCOMING
RUNS OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.
ON TUESDAY, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO ARIZONA AND FLOW
DIRECTION CHANGES TO THE NORTH. THE NBM GIVES A 60 TO 80 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS REACHING OVER 40 MPH BETWEEN BULLHEAD CITY AND
LAKE HAVASU CITY DURING THE DAY, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN ENSEMBLES. THE ECMWF
IS MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN STRONG WINDS COMPARED TO THE GFS IN
METEOGRAMS FOR KIFP AND KHII. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES TO DETERMINE THE NECESSITY OF HEADLINE
ISSUANCE.
GIVEN THE DRY INLAND TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE, PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE EITHER, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY, MOVING INLAND BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
ITERATIONS OF THE FORECAST WHERE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING INLAND FURTHER SOUTH AND THEN
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN, ONLY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA? IT
MEANS THAT THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SMIDGE BREEZIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. BREEZY WINDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH CLEARS OUT OF THE
REGION AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE FOR THE 00Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE THINNING OUT AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ABOVE 20KFT AGL. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL DAILY PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE....NORTHERLY BREEZES OF 10-
15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST AROUND KIFP THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE
EASING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY NEAR KDAG WHERE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TOMORROW, BUT WILL NOT BE OF ANY OPERATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...STESSMAN
AVIATION...OUTLER
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