715
FXUS65 KVEF 170543
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
943 PM PST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY LATE ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
UPDATE
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND SIERRA CREST OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF THESE WINDS, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE IN THE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. RIDGING WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US OVER THE WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN AN ACCELERATED WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 15+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO CALM CONDITIONS AND PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO NEVADA AND UTAH.
FIRST, ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BRING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS TO WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN A 75
PERCENT CHANCE OR GREATER OF REACHING 40 MPH IN THE EVENING, MAINLY
EAST OF BARSTOW. ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ELEVATED SURFACE
WINDS LASTING UNTIL MIDNIGHT, ATMOSPHERIC DECOUPLING MAY BRING AN
END TO ELEVATED WINDS EARLIER IN THE EVENING. NO PLANS ON ISSUING
WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE ISOLATED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
NATURE INDICATED SO FAR, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE WITH UPCOMING
RUNS OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.
ON TUESDAY, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO ARIZONA AND FLOW
DIRECTION CHANGES TO THE NORTH. THE NBM GIVES A 60 TO 80 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS REACHING OVER 40 MPH BETWEEN BULLHEAD CITY AND
LAKE HAVASU CITY DURING THE DAY, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN ENSEMBLES. THE ECMWF
IS MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN STRONG WINDS COMPARED TO THE GFS IN
METEOGRAMS FOR KIFP AND KHII. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES TO DETERMINE THE NECESSITY OF HEADLINE
ISSUANCE.
GIVEN THE DRY INLAND TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE, PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE EITHER, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY, MOVING INLAND BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
ITERATIONS OF THE FORECAST WHERE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING INLAND FURTHER SOUTH AND THEN
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN, ONLY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS. SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR OUR FORECAST AREA? IT
MEANS THAT THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SMIDGE BREEZIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. BREEZY WINDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH CLEARS OUT OF THE
REGION AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
AND DIURNAL WINDS WITH SOME VARIABILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 8KT. AFTER
18/06Z, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST, AND WHILE THERE IS A
20% PROBABILITY FOR SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 10KT OR GREATER, THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 15Z WHEN PROBABILITIES INCREASE SHARPLY. THUS, HAVE
MAINTAINED LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
INTERMITTENT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 15KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING
DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAS VEGAS VALLEY
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AT KBIH
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY, WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12KT BY 18Z, AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
DEVELOPING AFTER 18/00Z, CONTINUING THEREAFTER. AT LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS, LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY 19-20Z AS SPEEDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 12KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-20KT POSSIBLE AT IFP.
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KIFP THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH KEED SEEING ELEVATED WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER SUNSET. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KDAG WHERE GUSTS
TO AROUND 20KT HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS EVENING. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
18-20KT SUSTAINED BY MID-MORNING, AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT
POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AREAWIDE WITH PERIODIC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES
AROUND 15-20KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...STESSMAN
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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