668
FXUS65 KVEF 170949
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
149 AM PST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY LATE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND BRING MORE ELEVATED
NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND NO IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK INSIDER-SLIDER TYPE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, WHICH CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE
BARSTOW, CA AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. FOR TODAY, THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO GET ITS
ACT TOGETHER AND TRANSITION THIS FAR SOUTH FOR THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE TO RESPOND. CURRENTLY, 850MB
WINDS PER MESOANALYSIS IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT ARE AROUND 20-30
KT, WHICH AT THE SURFACE IS BEING REFLECTED AS WEST WINDS AT 10-15
MPH BUT NO GUSTS. THROUGH THE DAY, THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
WEAKENS AND DOESN'T INCREASE AGAIN UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
WHEN SIMILAR 850MB WINDS TO TONIGHT EXPECTED. A PERIOD OF WEAK
VORTICITY ADVECTION EARLY TONIGHT COULD HELP BRIEFLY TAP INTO THE
BETTER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE, BUT IT WOULD QUICKLY PASS THROUGH
THUS HIGHER GUSTS (AND POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS) WOULD BE LIMITED IN
TIME. HOURLY PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTFUL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH SHOW THIS
TREND WITH POCKETS OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES CONFINED TO A FEW HOURS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND FOCUSED ON THE
TERRAIN. ISOLATED WIND IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND BARSTOW, CA,
INCLUDING DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON THE I-15 AND I-40 THROUGH
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, BUT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AS 20-30 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER OTHER THAN AT THE SIERRA CREST WHERE INCREASING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL INTERSECT THE TERRAIN TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWEST. WITH AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, WIDESPREAD
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-25 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THERE WILL BE ENHANCED NORTH WINDS DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. THE NBM
50 PERCENTILE FOR WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY TOUCH 40 MPH AROUND LAUGHLIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND EVEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE STRUGGLES TO SHOW
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. GIVEN THE SET UP WITH THE BEST FORCING AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION, THE RISK FOR WINDS
TO OVER PERFORM IS LOW. BOATERS MAY SEE IMPACTS DUE TO WINDS MAY GUST
25-35 MPH AT TIMES WHICH COULD RESULT IN CHOPPY WAVES, BUT OVERALL
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD WIND IMPACTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE
WINDS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL
BE LIGHTER THAN TUESDAY IN ALL AREAS EXPECTED INYO COUNTY WHERE
GUSTY WINDS IN THE OWENS VALLEY TO 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND THE SAME EACH DAY
WITH FLUCTUATIONS OF A FEW DEGREES IN EITHER DIRECTION (BUT OVERALL-
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES) ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS TO THE REGION. DUE TO
THE DRY INLAND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, ONLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
PANHANDLE OF LINCOLN COUNTY HAS A MENTIONABLE (15 TO 30%) SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH ON THURSDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT AND OF MINIMAL IMPACT.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LINGER DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LAUGHLIN/BULLHEAD CITY AND NEEDLES, CA WHERE
THE NBM HIGHLIGHTS AN 80% CHANCE FOR PEAK GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
ON FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPY WAVES AND HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOHAVE ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, HELPING TO ACCELERATE
OUR WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 7 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEAST WIND
AFTER 18Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 06Z THIS EVENING WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF WIND SPEEDS OVER 10
KTS. THOSE PROBABILITIES INCREASE TO AROUND 80-100% CHANCE OF 10 KTS
OR GREATER AROUND 15Z TUESDAY MORNING, BUT PROBABILITIES OF 20 KTS
ARE LESS THAN 10%. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...
WINDS WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY TAF SITES WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KTS INTO
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PUSH OF NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER 06Z WITH
WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS. AT KEED AND KIFP, LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST BY 19-20Z AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 12KT WITH GUSTS TO
15-20KT POSSIBLE AT IFP. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KIFP THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AT KDAG WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT ARE ALREADY OCCURRING THIS
MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 18-20KT SUSTAINED BY MID-MORNING, AND GUSTS TO
AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST AT KBIH AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AREAWIDE WITH PERIODIC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 15-
20KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...NICKERSON
LONG TERM...STESSMAN
AVIATION...GORELOW
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