546
FXUS65 KVEF 172115
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
115 PM PST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WEAKEN AND TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM IS ON APPROACH TO OUR AREA, AS EVIDENCED BY THE HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW. WITH THIS TRAJECTORY, THERE WON'T BE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, AND THUS NO PRECIPITATION. INSTEAD, MAIN
IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE INCREASED WINDS. THE FIRST
LOCATIONS TO SEE THIS ARE THE WESTERN DESERTS OF SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY, WHERE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CHANCES OF 40+ MPH GUSTS ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN, SO WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY WIND HEADLINES. AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT, NORTHERLY BREEZES ON THE
BACKSIDE ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HOURS,
WHERE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. AGAIN, CHANCES FOR 40+ MPH
GUSTS ARE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SO NOT
ANTICIPATING THE NEED FOR ANY WIND HEADLINES HERE EITHER.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER SLIDER-LIKE SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR
AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EXITING FRIDAY. AGAIN, INCREASED WINDS
ARE GOING TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE, WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BEHIND IT. LATEST NBM PAINTS SW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH 40-60% CHANCES OF IMPACTFUL WINDS ON
THURSDAY, AND THE LAUGHLIN-NEEDLES AREA WITH 60-70% CHANCES ON
FRIDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE (20-30%) THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH OVERLAPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A SMALL POCKET OF
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE WORK WEEK HOVER NEAR SEASONAL VALUES, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
BROAD RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN US. ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB
HEIGHTS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES
TO ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S, WITH LOW 80S FORECAST IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNDAY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
HIGH
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY BUT WILL
RETURN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS
REMAIN FAVORED TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF SITES UNDER
PERIODIC HIGH CLOUD COVER. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WHERE GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR KDAG THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. FURTHER NORTH, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE NEAR KBIH THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE REGION BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...OUTLER
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