810
FXUS65 KVEF 180945
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
145 AM PST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WEAKEN AND TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. NO
IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWEST TODAY, BRUSHING THE
REGION AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERAL, NON-IMPACTFUL NORTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE
REGION. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY. STRONGER WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY DUE TO TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT. THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IS
30% OF LESS THOUGH, SO EVEN WITH THE ENHANCEMENT NOT EXPECTING WIND
IMPACTS. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY (70% PROBABILITY OR
HIGHER) THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF LAUGHLIN, WHICH MAY LEAD TO BOATING IMPACTS ON
LAKE MOHAVE. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE LIMITED TO
ONLY A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING AND FOCUSED TO JUST AROUND
LAUGHLIN, SO DID NOT SEE THE NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA WITH A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SINCE THE IMPACTS WOULD BE MARGINAL AND SHORT LIVED.
HOWEVER, IF THERE IS ANYONE BOATING ON LAKE MOHAVE THIS MORNING,
THEY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR OCCASIONAL WINDS TO 25 MPH AND WAVES UP
TO 2 FEET. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
INCREASE IN THE SIERRA HIGH TERRAIN AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FAR
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
THE SHORTWAVE, HOWEVER THE LACK OF MOISTURE MEANS IT WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. PROBABILITIES FOR
IMPACTFUL RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IS
NEAR ZERO, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS. WEDNESDAY
WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO TODAY'S TEMPERATURES AS
HEIGHTS BUILD, AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A QUICK-MOVING SLIDER-
LIKE SYSTEM SWINGING ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
INCREASED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BEHIND IT. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES HAVING A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 MPH ON THURSDAY. AS THE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST ON FRIDAY,
THE WIND IMPACTS MOVE TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE
THERE IS A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING WINDS TO 40 MPH.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH ONLY FAR NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY HAVING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE READINGS
CLIMB INTO THE MID-70S BY MONDAY, AND THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SEEING 80 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS BY NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z WHEN WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BEGIN INCREASING. BY 15Z, SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10KT WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 18KT ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE BEST WINDOW FOR THESE GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 15Z-20Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF GUSTS
AS WELL AS THE MAGNITUDE, GIVEN THERE IS A 50- 80% CHANCE FOR
GUSTS TO REACH 20KT. HOWEVER, EXPECT STRONGER GUSTS TO BE FEW,
WITH A MAJORITY OF GUSTS REMAINING UNDER 20KT DURING THAT TIME
PERIOD. AFTER 20Z, PROBABILITY FOR STRONG GUSTS DIMINISHES
QUICKLY, THROUGH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME LIGHT, WITH SPEEDS UNDER 8KT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH
BASES BETWEEN 15-25KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...FOR LAS VEGAS VALLEY
TERMINALS, DIURNAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AT KVGT BY 12Z.
GUSTS TO 20-25KT ARE EXPECTED THERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON,
BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER. KHND, ON THE OTHER
HAND, WILL SEE VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING,
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT EXPECTED NEAR OR JUST AFTER 15Z,
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 12KT AND MINIMAL GUSTS. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. WINDS AT KBIH WILL LARGELY REMAIN
UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
ALBEIT WITH SOME VARIABILITY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAINING
UNDER 10KT. AT KDAG, GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT PERSISTING THROUGH 10Z. THEREAFTER, GUSTS
QUICKLY DIMINISH AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST, AND GRADUALLY TO
THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING AS DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS RESUME.
KEED AND KIFP WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 14-16Z AND
BECOME GUSTY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT KEED REACHING 15- 20KT, AND
AT KIFP, 20-25KT. GUSTS TO 25-35KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS START TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. HOWEVER,
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL HOVER AROUND 10-12KT AT BOTH KEED AND KIFP
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES
AT OR ABOVE 15KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...NICKERSON
LONG TERM...PLANZ
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page