454
FXUS65 KVEF 181736
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
936 AM PST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. WINDS WEAKEN AND TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. NO
IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPDATE
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BREEZY NORTH WINDS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LAUGHLIN-NEEDLES AREA WHERE GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH ARE EXPECTED. WE'LL SEE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE FROM THE BREEZINESS
TOMORROW, BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.
PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM PST TUE FEB 18 2025
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWEST TODAY, BRUSHING THE
REGION AS IT MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERAL, NON-IMPACTFUL NORTHERLY BREEZES ACROSS THE
REGION. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY. STRONGER WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY DUE TO TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT. THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IS
30% OF LESS THOUGH, SO EVEN WITH THE ENHANCEMENT NOT EXPECTING WIND
IMPACTS. WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE LIKELY (70% PROBABILITY OR
HIGHER) THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF LAUGHLIN, WHICH MAY LEAD TO BOATING IMPACTS ON
LAKE MOHAVE. THE STRONGEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE LIMITED TO
ONLY A FEW HOURS LATE THIS MORNING AND FOCUSED TO JUST AROUND
LAUGHLIN, SO DID NOT SEE THE NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA WITH A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY SINCE THE IMPACTS WOULD BE MARGINAL AND SHORT LIVED.
HOWEVER, IF THERE IS ANYONE BOATING ON LAKE MOHAVE THIS MORNING,
THEY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR OCCASIONAL WINDS TO 25 MPH AND WAVES UP
TO 2 FEET. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
INCREASE IN THE SIERRA HIGH TERRAIN AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN FAR
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FORCING INCREASES WITH
THE SHORTWAVE, HOWEVER THE LACK OF MOISTURE MEANS IT WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. PROBABILITIES FOR
IMPACTFUL RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IS
NEAR ZERO, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS. WEDNESDAY
WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO TODAY'S TEMPERATURES AS
HEIGHTS BUILD, AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A QUICK-MOVING SLIDER-
LIKE SYSTEM SWINGING ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
INCREASED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BEHIND IT. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES HAVING A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 MPH ON THURSDAY. AS THE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST ON FRIDAY,
THE WIND IMPACTS MOVE TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE
THERE IS A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING WINDS TO 40 MPH.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH ONLY FAR NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY HAVING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE READINGS
CLIMB INTO THE MID-70S BY MONDAY, AND THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SEEING 80 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS BY NEXT TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A QUICK-MOVING SLIDER-
LIKE SYSTEM SWINGING ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
INCREASED WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BEHIND IT. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES HAVING A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 35 MPH ON THURSDAY. AS THE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST ON FRIDAY,
THE WIND IMPACTS MOVE TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE
THERE IS A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING WINDS TO 40 MPH.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH ONLY FAR NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY HAVING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE READINGS
CLIMB INTO THE MID-70S BY MONDAY, AND THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SEEING 80 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS BY NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...EXPECT DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY BETWEEN 340 AND 030 WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS THROUGH 20Z BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE AND
SETTLE INTO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
AND DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO SCT-BKN AOA 20 KFT THIS
EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS. GREATEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE BEFORE
20Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND
DIURNAL WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO SCT-
BKN AOA 20 KFT THIS EVENING. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, CEILINGS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA COULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO OBSCURE SOME OF THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...WOODS
SHORT TERM...NICKERSON
LONG TERM...PLANZ
AVIATION...SOULAT
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