978
FXUS65 KVEF 191123
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
323 AM PST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER ON FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, DRIVING
TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
SHORT TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUIET WEATHER FEATURING WARM TEMPERATURES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A RIDGE SCOOTS EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE, CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST, MOVES INLAND TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. THE FIRST NOTABLE
IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY IN INYO,
ESMERALDA, AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH IN THESE COUNTIES
ARE ALONG HIGH TERRAIN, WHILE THE VALLEYS GENERALLY HAVE A LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH. LOW
ELEVATION VALLEY GUSTS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE.
GIVEN THE LIMITED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE WINDS, WILL
NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY, MORE SUBSTANTIAL WINDS WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE NBM INDICATES A 60 TO 80 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ALONG THE RIVER BETWEEN
LAUGHLIN AND NEEDLES DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
AREA FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINE ISSUANCE.
ASIDE FROM A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS MEANS
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR LAS VEGAS.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE, WITH READINGS INCREASING TO ABOVE-NORMAL
LEVELS (5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE) BY SUNDAY, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL (10
DEGREES ON AVERAGE) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING 80 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS BY
TUESDAY AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES IN LAKE HAVASU. WITH
THE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO PASS OVERHEAD TODAY AND WINDS STAYING WELL BELOW 10
KNOTS. THE NEXT OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CONDITION WILL OCCUR IN
THE VICINITY OF 12Z THURSDAY, WHEN A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH,
BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 30 TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE SIERRA CREST TODAY, WITH LIGHTER
WINDS ELSEWHERE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY, THEN SOME
LOWER CLOUDS COULD REACH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. ANY
CLOUDS LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE TERRAIN OBSCURATION SHOULD BE SPOTTY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER PUSH OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND THE MOJAVE DESERT THURSDAY,
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS COMMON IN FAVORABLY ORIENTED MOUNTAINS
AND VALLEYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...PLANZ
AVIATION...MORGAN
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