500
FXUS65 KVEF 191732
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
932 AM PST WED FEB 19 2025
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER ON FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, DRIVING
TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
UPDATE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT SYSTEM COMING
ASHORE THE NORCAL COAST. THE EFFECTS OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOSTLY FELT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL, WITH THE BEST
ODDS (60-80%) IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY. SOME
LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE (20-30%) IN FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, BUT OTHERWISE WE REMAIN DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, DRIVING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
QUIET WEATHER FEATURING WARM TEMPERATURES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY AS A RIDGE SCOOTS EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE, CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST, MOVES INLAND TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. THE FIRST NOTABLE
IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY IN INYO,
ESMERALDA, AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH IN THESE COUNTIES
ARE ALONG HIGH TERRAIN, WHILE THE VALLEYS GENERALLY HAVE A LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH. LOW
ELEVATION VALLEY GUSTS WILL PEAK IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE.
GIVEN THE LIMITED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE WINDS, WILL
NOT BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY, MORE SUBSTANTIAL WINDS WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE NBM INDICATES A 60 TO 80 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ALONG THE RIVER BETWEEN
LAUGHLIN AND NEEDLES DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
AREA FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINE ISSUANCE.
ASIDE FROM A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS MEANS
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR LAS VEGAS.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE, WITH READINGS INCREASING TO ABOVE-NORMAL
LEVELS (5 DEGREES ON AVERAGE) BY SUNDAY, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL (10
DEGREES ON AVERAGE) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING 80 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS BY
TUESDAY AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES IN LAKE HAVASU. WITH
THE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A THIN VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH A
FEW PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN DIRECTION. A PASSING FRONT WILL BRING AN
UPTICK IN NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10Z-11Z TIMEFRAME THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH A 40-60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS TO
REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ASIDE FROM GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, EXPECT MOST TERMINALS
TO SEE WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTIONS BEING
KIFP, WITH A FAVORED NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, AND KDAG, WITH BREEZY
WEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS AND
HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED. A PASSING STORM SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL
BRING AN INFLUX OF STRONGER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN FAVORABLY ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH VALLEYS WITH
MORE EXPOSURE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 20-30 KNOTS,
WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS ECLIPSING 30 KNOTS IN MORE WIND PRONE AREAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...WOODS
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...PLANZ
AVIATION...AUSTIN
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