844
FXUS65 KVEF 192111
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
111 PM PST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
SYSTEM PASSES BY. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TUESDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM GOES-18 SHOWS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO NORCAL AND THE PACNW. THIS FEATURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TOMORROW. ITS NW
TRAJECTORY MEANS THAT IT WON'T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
OUR CWA. OUR FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS HAVE 10-30% POPS LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW, BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT AND NON-
IMPACTFUL. THE MAIN CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THE GUSTY WINDS
FORECAST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, WESTERLY
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH MOST OF THE NOTEWORTHY 40+ MPH
PROBABILITIES CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN (LESS THAN 25% IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS). THEN, AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT BEGIN TO
PUSH IN TONIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. AGAIN, PROBABILITIES FOR 40+ MPH GUSTS ARE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT THERE ARE LOW-MODERATE CHANCES
(30-40%) IN THE OWENS VALLEY TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS APPEARS LIMITED GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
PROBABILITIES AND WIND DIRECTION, THUS OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ANY WIND
HEADLINES FOR THE OWENS VALLEY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND IMPACTS
IS IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY VORT
MAX SWINGS SOUTH. LATEST NBM CONTINUES TO PAINT THE LAUGHLIN-NEEDLES
AREA WITH 60-80% CHANCES OF 40+ MPH GUSTS, AND THE EPS MEAN PEAK
GUST AT KIFP IS JUST SHY OF THAT THRESHOLD. DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN KELY AND KEED ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 10MB, WHICH HISTORICALLY IS AN INDICATOR OF WIND ADVISORY
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, 850MB FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT
STRONG, WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING 25-35 KNOTS. GOING TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR FRIDAY TO COME INTO THE HI-
RES GUIDANCE WINDOW. ANYONE WITH BOATING PLANS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR INCREASED WAVE ACTIVITY.
THE UPCOMING SYSTEM WON'T AFFECT TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH, WITH THE
LARGEST COOLING (2-6 DEGREES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES. HIGHS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. HERE IN VEGAS, WE HAVE A ~25% CHANCE OF REACHING 80 DEGREES
ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, PLACES LIKE LAKE HAVASU, NEEDLES, AND DEATH
VALLEY HAVE 10-20% CHANCES OF REACHING 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE A THIN VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH A
FEW PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN DIRECTION. A PASSING FRONT WILL BRING AN
UPTICK IN NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10Z-11Z TIMEFRAME THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH A 40-60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS TO
REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ASIDE FROM GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, EXPECT MOST TERMINALS
TO SEE WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTIONS BEING
KIFP, WITH A FAVORED NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, AND KDAG, WITH BREEZY
WEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS AND
HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED. A PASSING STORM SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL
BRING AN INFLUX OF STRONGER NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN FAVORABLY ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH VALLEYS WITH
MORE EXPOSURE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 20-30 KNOTS,
WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS ECLIPSING 30 KNOTS IN MORE WIND PRONE AREAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...AUSTIN
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