305
FXUS65 KVEF 200541
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
941 PM PST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
UPDATE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING - WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH - AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. WIND SPEEDS WILL DWINDLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY BEFORE PICKING BACK UP ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BETWEEN
6 AND 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN, WHILE THE EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT
WILL SEE MINIMAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES (WITH AT-OR-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED). NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS
EVENING AS IT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
404 PM PST WED FEB 19 2025/
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TUESDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM GOES-18 SHOWS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO NORCAL AND THE PACNW. THIS FEATURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TOMORROW. ITS NW
TRAJECTORY MEANS THAT IT WON'T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
OUR CWA. OUR FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS HAVE 10-30% POPS LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW, BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT AND NON-
IMPACTFUL.
THE MAIN CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THE GUSTY WINDS
FORECAST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, WESTERLY
WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH MOST OF THE NOTEWORTHY 40+ MPH
PROBABILITIES CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN (LESS THAN 25% IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS). THEN, AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT BEGIN TO
PUSH IN TONIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. AGAIN, PROBABILITIES FOR 40+ MPH GUSTS ARE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT THERE ARE LOW-MODERATE CHANCES
(30-40%) IN THE OWENS VALLEY TOMORROW MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTS APPEARS LIMITED GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PROBABILITIES AND
WIND DIRECTION, THUS OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR THE
OWENS VALLEY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND IMPACTS IS IN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY VORT MAX SWINGS
SOUTH. LATEST NBM CONTINUES TO PAINT THE LAUGHLIN-NEEDLES AREA WITH
60-80% CHANCES OF 40+ MPH GUSTS, AND THE EPS MEAN PEAK GUST AT KIFP
IS JUST SHY OF THAT THRESHOLD. DETERMINISTIC MODEL SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BETWEEN KELY AND KEED ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10MB,
WHICH HISTORICALLY IS AN INDICATOR OF WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, 850MB FLOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT STRONG, WITH MOST
GUIDANCE SHOWING 25-35 KNOTS. GOING TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND
HEADLINES FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR FRIDAY TO COME INTO THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE WINDOW. ANYONE WITH BOATING PLANS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR INCREASED WAVE ACTIVITY.
THE UPCOMING SYSTEM WON'T AFFECT TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH, WITH THE
LARGEST COOLING (2-6 DEGREES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES. HIGHS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S
TO LOW 70S. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN US
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. HERE IN VEGAS, WE HAVE A ~25% CHANCE OF REACHING 80 DEGREES
ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, PLACES LIKE LAKE HAVASU CITY, NEEDLES, AND
DEATH VALLEY HAVE 10-20% CHANCES OF REACHING 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THE WINDS, AND
THE TAF HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS BY NOW SHOWING THE SHIFT
BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ON FRIDAY, WITH SPEEDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY DURING THE DAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES
AOA 20KFT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTERWARD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE LAS VEGAS AREA
TERMINALS WILL SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS DESCRIBED FOR HARRY
REID, EXCEPT THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE 1 TO 2 HOURS EARLIER AT KVGT.
A PASSING STORM SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF STRONGER
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THESE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN
FAVORABLY ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH VALLEYS WITH MORE EXPOSURE. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS, WITH PERHAPS A
FEW GUSTS ECLIPSING 30 KNOTS IN MORE WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE
WINDS FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW EVENING. A BAND OF
HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20KFT AGL WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. ONCE THAT
PASSES, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...SOULAT
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...PLANZ
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