203
FXUS65 KVEF 200851
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1251 AM PST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LAST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY
AS A SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WIND. THE SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. A FEW GUSTS OVER
40 MPH ARE ALSO OBSERVED OVER HIGH TERRAIN. THESE GUSTS SHOULD
SPREAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE, DECREASING IN THE EVENING.
ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AS A VORT MAX SWINGS SOUTH AROUND THE SHORTWAVE. THE
HREF SHOWS GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GUSTS REACHING
OVER 40 MPH, BUT THEY ARE LIMITED TO HIGH TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE COLORADO RIVER BETWEEN LAUGHLIN AND LAKE HAVASU CITY.
MEANWHILE, THE NBM KEEPS GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITIES
OVER THE RIVER BETWEEN LAUGHLIN AND NEEDLES. KEEPING THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IN MIND AND KNOWLEDGE OF PAST EVENTS IN THE AREA, THE
STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE RIVER PER THE NBM IS PROBABLY MORE
REALISTIC. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS AN UPTICK IN NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS, BUT ONCE AGAIN THEY ARE STILL FAIRLY WEAK AT ONLY 25 TO 35
KNOTS AT 850 MB OVER THE RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS WINDS
PICKING UP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, PEAKING LATER IN THE
MORNING AND GRADUALLY DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF PEAK
WINDS AND WHEN SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MAY DEPEND ON WHEN
THE 850 MB WINDS DECREASE, WHICH VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. GIVEN THE
LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF SURFACE WINDS AND LACK OF SUPPORT FROM
850 MB WINDS, DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED, BUT THE EXTENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH IS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MOHAVE, EXCLUDING
THE MAJORITY OF LAKE MOHAVE AND ALL OF LAKE MEAD. THEREFORE, DID
NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY EITHER. THAT BEING SAID, ELEVATED
WINDS WILL STILL CREATE WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ON LAKE MOHAVE AND
BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CLOSE OUT
THE WEEKEND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH "MINOR" HEATRISK
APPEARING IN OUR LOWEST ELEVATION DESERT VALLEYS SUCH AS DEATH
VALLEY AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. MINOR HEATRISK AFFECTS
PRIMARILY THOSE INDIVIDUALS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY
WHEN OUTDOORS WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES INCREASE
FURTHER WITH A PEAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THIS POINT, MINOR HEATRISK
GROWS TO INCLUDE THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, MORONGO BASIN, MOAPA VALLEY,
GOLDEN VALLEY, AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING THE LAKE MEAD
RECREATION AREA. CHANCES OF REACHING 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY ARE 20%,
90%, AND 100% FOR LAS VEGAS, TWENTYNINE PALMS, AND LAKE HAVASU CITY,
RESPECTIVELY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST BY
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THE WINDS, AND
THE TAF HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS BY NOW SHOWING THE SHIFT
BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, OCCASIONAL NORTHERLY
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ON FRIDAY, WITH
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY DURING THE DAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
WITH BASES AOA 20KFT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTERWARD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE LAS VEGAS AREA
TERMINALS WILL SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS DESCRIBED FOR HARRY
REID, EXCEPT THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE 1 TO 2 HOURS EARLIER AT KVGT.
A PASSING STORM SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF STRONGER
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THESE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN
FAVORABLY ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH VALLEYS WITH MORE EXPOSURE. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS, WITH PERHAPS A
FEW GUSTS ECLIPSING 30 KNOTS IN MORE WIND-PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE
WINDS FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW EVENING. A BAND OF
HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20KFT AGL WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. ONCE THAT
PASSES, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...PLANZ
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