131
FXUS65 KVEF 201130
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
330 AM PST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LAST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY
AS A SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WIND. THE SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. A FEW GUSTS OVER
40 MPH ARE ALSO OBSERVED OVER HIGH TERRAIN. THESE GUSTS SHOULD
SPREAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE, DECREASING IN THE EVENING.
ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AS A VORT MAX SWINGS SOUTH AROUND THE SHORTWAVE. THE
HREF SHOWS GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GUSTS REACHING
OVER 40 MPH, BUT THEY ARE LIMITED TO HIGH TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE COLORADO RIVER BETWEEN LAUGHLIN AND LAKE HAVASU CITY.
MEANWHILE, THE NBM KEEPS GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITIES
OVER THE RIVER BETWEEN LAUGHLIN AND NEEDLES. KEEPING THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IN MIND AND KNOWLEDGE OF PAST EVENTS IN THE AREA, THE
STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE RIVER PER THE NBM IS PROBABLY MORE
REALISTIC. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS AN UPTICK IN NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS, BUT ONCE AGAIN THEY ARE STILL FAIRLY WEAK AT ONLY 25 TO 35
KNOTS AT 850 MB OVER THE RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS WINDS
PICKING UP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, PEAKING LATER IN THE
MORNING AND GRADUALLY DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF PEAK
WINDS AND WHEN SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MAY DEPEND ON WHEN
THE 850 MB WINDS DECREASE, WHICH VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. GIVEN THE
LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF SURFACE WINDS AND LACK OF SUPPORT FROM
850 MB WINDS, DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED, BUT THE EXTENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH IS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MOHAVE, EXCLUDING
THE MAJORITY OF LAKE MOHAVE AND ALL OF LAKE MEAD. THEREFORE, DID
NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY EITHER. THAT BEING SAID, ELEVATED
WINDS WILL STILL CREATE WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ON LAKE MOHAVE AND
BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CLOSE OUT
THE WEEKEND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH "MINOR" HEATRISK
APPEARING IN OUR LOWEST ELEVATION DESERT VALLEYS SUCH AS DEATH
VALLEY AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. MINOR HEATRISK AFFECTS
PRIMARILY THOSE INDIVIDUALS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY
WHEN OUTDOORS WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES INCREASE
FURTHER WITH A PEAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THIS POINT, MINOR HEATRISK
GROWS TO INCLUDE THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, MORONGO BASIN, MOAPA VALLEY,
GOLDEN VALLEY, AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING THE LAKE MEAD
RECREATION AREA. CHANCES OF REACHING 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY ARE 20%,
90%, AND 100% FOR LAS VEGAS, TWENTYNINE PALMS, AND LAKE HAVASU CITY,
RESPECTIVELY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
EXPECT
WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTH NORTHWESTERLY BY 6 AM, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS BY 8 AM OR SO. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN BEFORE SUNSET THIS
EVENING, MOST LIKELY REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH, ALTHOUGH A SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AROUND MID
MORNING FRIDAY, WITH SPEEDS HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE RUNWAY
CONFIGURATION CONCERNS. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR
WEATHER EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CA/NV BORDER THIS MORNING
AND IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STAY UP
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE NEAR KIFP
FRIDAY. A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY, OTHERWISE, NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDS OR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...PLANZ
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