380
FXUS65 KVEF 201744 RRA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
944 AM PST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LAST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY
AS A SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
UPDATE
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TOMORROW, STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY, MAINLY THE LAUGHLIN-NEEDLES AREA. HERE, GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH ARE FORECAST, WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
IMMEDIATE LAUGHLIN AREA. WINDS START TO RELAX OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO PUSH
TEMPERATURES UPWARD, WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WIND. THE SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. A FEW GUSTS OVER
40 MPH ARE ALSO OBSERVED OVER HIGH TERRAIN. THESE GUSTS SHOULD
SPREAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE, DECREASING IN THE EVENING.
ATTENTION TURNS TO NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AS A VORT MAX SWINGS SOUTH AROUND THE SHORTWAVE. THE
HREF SHOWS GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GUSTS REACHING
OVER 40 MPH, BUT THEY ARE LIMITED TO HIGH TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE COLORADO RIVER BETWEEN LAUGHLIN AND LAKE HAVASU CITY.
MEANWHILE, THE NBM KEEPS GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT PROBABILITIES
OVER THE RIVER BETWEEN LAUGHLIN AND NEEDLES. KEEPING THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IN MIND AND KNOWLEDGE OF PAST EVENTS IN THE AREA, THE
STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE RIVER PER THE NBM IS PROBABLY MORE
REALISTIC. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS AN UPTICK IN NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS, BUT ONCE AGAIN THEY ARE STILL FAIRLY WEAK AT ONLY 25 TO 35
KNOTS AT 850 MB OVER THE RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS WINDS
PICKING UP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, PEAKING LATER IN THE
MORNING AND GRADUALLY DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF PEAK
WINDS AND WHEN SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MAY DEPEND ON WHEN
THE 850 MB WINDS DECREASE, WHICH VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. GIVEN THE
LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF SURFACE WINDS AND LACK OF SUPPORT FROM
850 MB WINDS, DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED, BUT THE EXTENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER
THAN 25 MPH IS LIMITED TO SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MOHAVE, EXCLUDING
THE MAJORITY OF LAKE MOHAVE AND ALL OF LAKE MEAD. THEREFORE, DID
NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY EITHER. THAT BEING SAID, ELEVATED
WINDS WILL STILL CREATE WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ON LAKE MOHAVE AND
BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CLOSE OUT
THE WEEKEND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH "MINOR" HEATRISK
APPEARING IN OUR LOWEST ELEVATION DESERT VALLEYS SUCH AS DEATH
VALLEY AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. MINOR HEATRISK AFFECTS
PRIMARILY THOSE INDIVIDUALS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY
WHEN OUTDOORS WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES INCREASE
FURTHER WITH A PEAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THIS POINT, MINOR HEATRISK
GROWS TO INCLUDE THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, MORONGO BASIN, MOAPA VALLEY,
GOLDEN VALLEY, AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING THE LAKE MEAD
RECREATION AREA. CHANCES OF REACHING 80 DEGREES ON TUESDAY ARE 20%,
90%, AND 100% FOR LAS VEGAS, TWENTYNINE PALMS, AND LAKE HAVASU CITY,
RESPECTIVELY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
BETWEEN 320-350 DEGREES AT 20-30 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ANYTHING BETWEEN 360-030 DEGREES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST LONG. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AROUND SUNSET
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8-10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
THROUGH 17Z FRIDAY. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR WEATHER
EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z-22Z WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-20 KTS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT STAY AROUND 10-15 KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN NORTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY, OTHERWISE, NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...WOODS
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...GORELOW
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