243
FXUS65 KVEF 211122
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
322 AM PST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER TODAY, DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TODAY.
THE MAIN POINT OF INTEREST FOR TODAY'S FORECAST IS WIND. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND A VORT MAX
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE.
THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS, HIGHEST IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD PEAK THIS MORNING WITH A 40 TO
60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GUSTS REACHING OVER 40 MPH THIS MORNING
BETWEEN LAUGHLIN AND NEEDLES ACCORDING TO THE HREF. HOWEVER, MOST
GUSTS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
STILL NO PLANS FOR ISSUING WIND HEADLINES TODAY GIVEN THE LIMITED
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. AS USUAL WITH
ELEVATED WINDS IN THIS AREA, BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WAVES OF
UP TO 3 FEET ON LAKE MOHAVE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECT LIGHTER NORTHERLY
WINDS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE, WHICH FOR LAS VEGAS MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB WELL-ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES IN DESERT VALLEYS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S WITH THE LOWEST ELEVATION
VALLEYS SUCH AS LAKE HAVASU CITY AND DEATH VALLEY CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER-80S, WHICH IS 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN DESERT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT DAMPENING TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
THOUGH THIS WOULD TYPICALLY RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE DECREASE, THE
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ELEVATE WIND SPEEDS ENOUGH TO
FACILITATE ATMOSPHERIC MIXING AND ALLOW TUESDAY TO OBSERVE THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL RANGE 4-6 MB
LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT "MINOR" HEATRISK IN DESERT VALLEYS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, MOAPA
VALLEY, COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, MORONGO BASIN, PAHRUMP VALLEY, AND
DEATH VALLEY. MINOR HEATRISK AFFECTS PRIMARILY THOSE INDIVIDUALS
EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY WHEN OUTDOORS WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REINTRODUCES POPS TO THE REGION LATE-WEEK,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH WILL ERODE THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND USHER IN MODEST MOISTURE. AT THE
MOMENT, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HITS THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR (IVT) HINTS AT AN INTERESTING SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE TRAJECTORY, WHICH WOULD BODE WELL FOR MOJAVE DESERT
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS WE GET
CLOSER, AS THIS EVENT IS AT THE TAIL-END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN NORTH AND NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTHERLY THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
GOING BACK TO NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEAST WINDS COULD STICK
AROUND ALL MORNING. AROUND SUNSET, WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
STAY THAT WAY THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR WEATHER EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
EXPECTED IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY, WITH LINGERING GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE NEAR KIFP
SATURDAY. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR WEATHER EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...MORGAN
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