541
FXUS65 KVEF 211753
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
953 AM PST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLORADO
RIVER TODAY, DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH THE MORNING SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
DIGGING INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. MUCH OF THE REGION SAT UNDER THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THIS TROUGH, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DRAPED OVER THE AREA. 20-30 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN MANY
LOCATIONS THROUGH SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST GUSTS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OF NORTHERLY WINDS
HAS ALLOWED FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WERE COLDER THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOCATIONS RUNNING
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT WIND
REPORTS AND EXPECTATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY
WEATHER-WISE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TODAY. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME ANY STRONGER THAN WHAT IS ONGOING CURRENTLY. AFTER ABOUT 3
PM, WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTS OVER 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED (BUT WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON). TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER TODAY, THOUGH
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON- TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RECOVER NICELY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY RUN A DEGREE
OR TWO DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
-NICKERSON-
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
322 AM PST FRI FEB 21 2025
SHORT TERM
TODAY.
THE MAIN POINT OF INTEREST FOR TODAY'S FORECAST IS WIND. THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER COLORADO AND A VORT MAX
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DISTURBANCE TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE.
THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS, HIGHEST IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD PEAK THIS MORNING WITH A 40 TO
60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GUSTS REACHING OVER 40 MPH THIS MORNING
BETWEEN LAUGHLIN AND NEEDLES ACCORDING TO THE HREF. HOWEVER, MOST
GUSTS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
STILL NO PLANS FOR ISSUING WIND HEADLINES TODAY GIVEN THE LIMITED
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. AS USUAL WITH
ELEVATED WINDS IN THIS AREA, BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WAVES OF
UP TO 3 FEET ON LAKE MOHAVE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECT LIGHTER NORTHERLY
WINDS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE, WHICH FOR LAS VEGAS MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB WELL-ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES IN DESERT VALLEYS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S WITH THE LOWEST ELEVATION
VALLEYS SUCH AS LAKE HAVASU CITY AND DEATH VALLEY CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER-80S, WHICH IS 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN DESERT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT DAMPENING TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
THOUGH THIS WOULD TYPICALLY RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE DECREASE, THE
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ELEVATE WIND SPEEDS ENOUGH TO
FACILITATE ATMOSPHERIC MIXING AND ALLOW TUESDAY TO OBSERVE THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL RANGE 4-6 MB
LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT "MINOR" HEATRISK IN DESERT VALLEYS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, MOAPA
VALLEY, COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, MORONGO BASIN, PAHRUMP VALLEY, AND
DEATH VALLEY. MINOR HEATRISK AFFECTS PRIMARILY THOSE INDIVIDUALS
EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY WHEN OUTDOORS WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REINTRODUCES POPS TO THE REGION LATE-WEEK,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH WILL ERODE THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND USHER IN MODEST MOISTURE. AT THE
MOMENT, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HITS THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR (IVT) HINTS AT AN INTERESTING SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE TRAJECTORY, WHICH WOULD BODE WELL FOR MOJAVE DESERT
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS WE GET
CLOSER, AS THIS EVENT IS AT THE TAIL-END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS
COULD SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH (340-010) DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT IF THAT OCCURS IT WILL BE BRIEF. AROUND SUNSET, WINDS
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.
NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR WEATHER EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH LINGERING GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE NEAR KIFP SATURDAY. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR
WEATHER EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...GORELOW
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