117
FXUS65 KVEF 220515
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
915 PM PST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL INCREASED WINDS AND LOW IMPACT
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.
UPDATE
WIND SPEEDS HAVE SUBSIDED ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING, WITH SPEEDS AREAWIDE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. NO CHANGES MADE
TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS IT REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
230 PM PST FRI FEB 21 2025/
SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE TO THE EAST. ON SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD, A WEAK
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ZIP THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. THIS WAVE WON'T DO
MUCH AS THE RIDGE SHOULD BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE; HOWEVER, BREEZY
WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THIS IMPULSE, WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN TODAY WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH AT MOST. PROBABILITIES
FOR IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS ARE 20% AT MOST ON SATURDAY IN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY, SO OVERALL NOT EXPECTING WIND IMPACTS AS THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS. ON SUNDAY, HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, AND BY SUNDAY COULD BE 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN DESERT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT DAMPENING TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
THOUGH THIS WOULD TYPICALLY RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE DECREASE, THE
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ELEVATE WIND SPEEDS ENOUGH TO
FACILITATE ATMOSPHERIC MIXING AND ALLOW TUESDAY TO OBSERVE THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL RANGE 4-6 MB
LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT "MINOR" HEATRISK IN DESERT VALLEYS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, MOAPA
VALLEY, COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, MORONGO BASIN, PAHRUMP VALLEY, AND
DEATH VALLEY. MINOR HEATRISK AFFECTS PRIMARILY THOSE INDIVIDUALS
EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY WHEN OUTDOORS WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REINTRODUCES POPS TO THE REGION LATE-WEEK,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH WILL ERODE THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND USHER IN MODEST MOISTURE. AT THE
MOMENT, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HITS THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF
INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR (IVT) HINTS AT AN INTERESTING SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE TRAJECTORY, WHICH WOULD BODE WELL FOR MOJAVE DESERT
PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS WE GET
CLOSER, AS THIS EVENT IS AT THE TAIL-END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS,
FLIPPING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND MID-TO-LATE MORNING. THESE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...VGT AND BIH WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TOMORROW
MORNING. THESE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WHEN WINDS WILL SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS AT
HND WILL REMAIN LIGHT, 10 KNOTS OR LESS, AND WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SETTLE IN
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AT DAG. THESE
LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHEN WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS IN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EED WILL FAVOR A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHILE IFP WILL FAVOR A MORE NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. BOTH COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF SITES WILL SEE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS PICKING UP
AROUND MID-MORNING. THESE BREEZIER NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH EED FALLING
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND IFP SWINGING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. FEW TO
SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...NICKERSON
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...STESSMAN
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