694
FXUS65 KVEF 220845
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1245 AM PST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AN
UPCOMING SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PRECIPITATION AND
INCREASED WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE RIDGING PATTERN
TODAY, RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER.
PEAK GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE, HIGHEST BETWEEN
LAUGHLIN AND NEEDLES IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
THEIR CLIMB INTO ABOVE NORMAL TERRITORY THIS WEEKEND, A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE TODAY, RISING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. LOOKING PROBABILISTICALLY, LAS VEGAS HAS A 75 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF REACHING 70 DEGREES AND LAKE HAVASU CITY HAS A 50
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF REACHING 80 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. MINOR (LEVEL
1) HEATRISK EMERGES IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DEATH VALLEY, A
LEVEL OF HEAT THAT AFFECTS INDIVIDUALS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION OR ACCESS TO COOLING.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES IN DESERT VALLEYS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S WITH THE LOWEST ELEVATION VALLEYS SUCH AS LAKE
HAVASU CITY AND DEATH VALLEY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER-80S, WHICH IS
10-12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN DESERT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT DAMPENING TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
THOUGH THIS WOULD TYPICALLY RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE DECREASE, THE
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ELEVATE WIND SPEEDS ENOUGH TO
FACILITATE ATMOSPHERIC MIXING AND ALLOW TUESDAY TO OBSERVE THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. LAS VEGAS HAS ALREADY OBSERVED 80
DEGREES THIS YEAR, BUT CHANCES OF OBSERVING IT AGAIN ON TUESDAY
RANGE FROM 50 TO 70% ACROSS THE VALLEY. MEANWHILE, DEATH VALLEY AND
LAKE HAVASU CITY HAVE BETWEEN 30 AND 50% CHANCES OF OBSERVING THEIR
FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR.
RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THOUGH
HEIGHTS WILL RANGE 4-6 MB LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT "MINOR" HEATRISK IN DESERT VALLEYS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, MOAPA
VALLEY, COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, MORONGO BASIN, PAHRUMP VALLEY, AND
DEATH VALLEY. MINOR HEATRISK AFFECTS PRIMARILY THOSE INDIVIDUALS
EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY WHEN OUTDOORS WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW PUSHING INTO THE MOJAVE
DESERT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC LATE-WEEK WITH A COINCIDING
INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS TIME
FRAME IS STILL IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, SO UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH SURROUNDING STRENGTH, LOCATION, SPEED, AND MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE PWATS BETWEEN 100 AND 150% OF NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND AND THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 8-14 DAYS. THIS IS NOTABLE, BECAUSE LAS
VEGAS'S NORMAL FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION IS 0.80" AND NORMAL MARCH
PRECIPITATION IS 0.42". STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST TO SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS,
FLIPPING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND MID-TO-LATE MORNING. THESE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...VGT AND BIH WILL SEE
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TOMORROW
MORNING. THESE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WHEN WINDS WILL SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS AT
HND WILL REMAIN LIGHT, 10 KNOTS OR LESS, AND WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SETTLE IN
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AT DAG. THESE
LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHEN WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS IN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EED WILL FAVOR A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHILE IFP WILL FAVOR A MORE NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. BOTH COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF SITES WILL SEE WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS PICKING UP
AROUND MID-MORNING. THESE BREEZIER NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH EED FALLING
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND IFP SWINGING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. FEW TO
SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...STESSMAN
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