766
FXUS65 KVEF 221749 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
949 AM PST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AN
UPCOMING SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PRECIPITATION AND
INCREASED WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH THE MORNING SHOWED AN AREA OF
CLOUDS SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US AHEAD OF A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. WITH NO MOISTURE ABOUT 600 MB (PER THE
REV 12Z SOUNDING), NO PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING FROM THIS CLOUD
DECK. AT THE SURFACE, NOT MUCH GOING ON WEATHER-WISE AS WINDS WERE
LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE
NORTH WIND OF 10-15 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 25 MPH WERE
REPORTED. TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT THE SAME AS THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING.
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS LOW IMPACT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD
AT TIMES BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE CURRENT WINDS IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ARE THE STRONGEST THEY WILL BE TODAY AS THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
CALIFORNIA WHERE HEIGHT RISES AND MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW
FOR AMPLE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON.
-NICKERSON-
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
108 AM PST SAT FEB 22 2025
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE RIDGING PATTERN
TODAY, RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER.
PEAK GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE, HIGHEST BETWEEN
LAUGHLIN AND NEEDLES IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
THEIR CLIMB INTO ABOVE NORMAL TERRITORY THIS WEEKEND, A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE TODAY, RISING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. LOOKING PROBABILISTICALLY, LAS VEGAS HAS A 75 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF REACHING 70 DEGREES AND LAKE HAVASU CITY HAS A 50
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF REACHING 80 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. MINOR (LEVEL
1) HEATRISK EMERGES IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DEATH VALLEY, A
LEVEL OF HEAT THAT AFFECTS INDIVIDUALS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE HYDRATION OR ACCESS TO COOLING.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES IN DESERT VALLEYS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S WITH THE LOWEST ELEVATION VALLEYS SUCH AS LAKE
HAVASU CITY AND DEATH VALLEY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER-80S, WHICH IS
10-12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN DESERT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT DAMPENING TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
THOUGH THIS WOULD TYPICALLY RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE DECREASE, THE
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ELEVATE WIND SPEEDS ENOUGH TO
FACILITATE ATMOSPHERIC MIXING AND ALLOW TUESDAY TO OBSERVE THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. LAS VEGAS HAS ALREADY OBSERVED 80
DEGREES THIS YEAR, BUT CHANCES OF OBSERVING IT AGAIN ON TUESDAY
RANGE FROM 50 TO 70% ACROSS THE VALLEY. MEANWHILE, DEATH VALLEY AND
LAKE HAVASU CITY HAVE BETWEEN 30 AND 50% CHANCES OF OBSERVING THEIR
FIRST 90-DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR.
RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THOUGH
HEIGHTS WILL RANGE 4-6 MB LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL, BUT WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT "MINOR" HEATRISK IN DESERT VALLEYS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, MOAPA
VALLEY, COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, MORONGO BASIN, PAHRUMP VALLEY, AND
DEATH VALLEY. MINOR HEATRISK AFFECTS PRIMARILY THOSE INDIVIDUALS
EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY WHEN OUTDOORS WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW PUSHING INTO THE MOJAVE
DESERT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC LATE-WEEK WITH A COINCIDING
INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS TIME
FRAME IS STILL IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, SO UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH SURROUNDING STRENGTH, LOCATION, SPEED, AND MOISTURE
CONTENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THAT SAID, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
INDICATE PWATS BETWEEN 100 AND 150% OF NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND AND THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 8-14 DAYS. THIS IS NOTABLE, BECAUSE LAS
VEGAS'S NORMAL FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION IS 0.80" AND NORMAL MARCH
PRECIPITATION IS 0.42". STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST TO SEE HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 8KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 25KFT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACROSS THE REGION, LIGHT WINDS WILL FOLLOW DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS, ALBEIT WITH SOME VARIABILITY, THOUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
ONLY NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE KEED AND KIFP IN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 18-20KT ARE EXPECTED AT KEED, WITH
STRONGER GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT AT KIFP. LATE AFTERNOON, THESE GUSTS
WILL DIMINISH, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS DROPPING TO 10KT OR LESS BY
SUNSET. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH INTERMITTENT
HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 25KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...SOULAT
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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