702
FXUS65 KVEF 270200
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
700 PM PDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING 14 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS BEGINNING THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
UPDATE
ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST AND SOME ADDED SURFACE MIXING ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
ACROSS MOST LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON. WE OFFICIALLY REACHED 92 DEGREES
AT KLAS WHICH IS THE WARMEST TEMP OF THE YEAR SO FAR, AND SET OR
TIED DAILY RECORDS AT NEEDLES (98F), BISHOP (82F), AND KINGMAN
(87F). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW BUT A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE AS THE RIDGE AXIS BREAKS DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGHING. IN THE MEANTIME, PLEASANT AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TOMORROW. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED.
-OUTLER-
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT BY AN INCOMING PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEATHER SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE SYSTEM TO
OVERCOME THE RIDGE, WHICH WILL LEAVE THE AREA IN A TRANSITIONAL
SYNOPTIC SETUP AS LOW PRESSURE SITS TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OF
FORCING, NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
REGION.
AS THE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS COMPETE, WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION DUE TO THE SANDWICHED PRESSURE GRADIENT. ON THURSDAY,
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IN THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS TURN
WEST. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW FAVORABLE SET UPS FOR DOWNSLOPING,
THOUGH HI-RES MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BECOME AS
THEY TRANSITIONS DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES INTO THE VALLEY FLOORS.
THE OVERALL SET UP AND ENSEMBLES PROBABILITIES SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
40-50 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCLUDING STRONG
CROSSWINDS ACROSS HIGHWAY 395- THUS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODERATE WIND
IMPACTS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND IMPACTS
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER 60 MPH, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, HI-RES MODELS VARY IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AS THEY REACH THE MID TO LOWER ELEVATION.
HREF DESI 90TH PERCENTILE SUGGEST STRONGER WINDS MAKING TO HIGHWAY
395 AND IMPACTING A FEW TOWNS THURSDAY LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN INDEPENDENCE AND BIG PINE AS WELL AS
AROUND OLANCHA. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
AFTER 4 PM PT INCREASES TO 20%-40% IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.
HOWEVER, NBM PAINTS A VERY DIFFERENT STORY WITH THE 90TH
PERCENTILE REMAINING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA AND PROBABILITIES
NEVER CLIMBING OVER 20% FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. DECIDED ON THE
WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW AS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AND THE MOST
WIDESPREAD IMPACT TO OCCUR, HOWEVER IF LATER MODEL RUNS OR
ENSEMBLES INCREASE THE CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHER WIND
IMPACTS, THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE SIERRA AND OWENS
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST
AND THE WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPING.
ELSEWHERE, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A BRIEF TIME PERIOD AFTER 4
PM PT WHERE WIND GUSTS MAY TOUCH 40 MPH IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT AS WELL AS IN PARTS OF LINCOLN COUNTY AS THE 850MB
INCREASE, BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS MIXING
ENDS. IN GENERAL, WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL GUST 25-35 MPH AT
TIMES.
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TYPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY BELT
THROUGH SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK, AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES WHERE
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE COUNTY, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE SIN THE
TERRAIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO SUGGEST
THE STRONGEST WINDS SET UP OVER THE WESTERLY GAP AROUND BARSTOW,
CA. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT ON FRIDAY, BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL HI-RES MODELS AND HOW THE FIRST PART
OF THE EVENT SHAKES OUT BEFORE ISSUING ADDITIONAL WIND HEADLINES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND TO THE TRANSITIONING WEATHER SET UP.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL WORK TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR REGION AND RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SIERRA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, BUT OVERALL THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR AREA. HOWEVER, SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN PERIODIC BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS, BEFORE RISING SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE
CLUSTER GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON THE DETAILS BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL TROUGHS TO INFLUENCE
THE REGION AS WE BEGIN THE MONTH OF APRIL WITH BOUTS OF GUSTY SPRING
WINDS AND TEMPERATURE SWINGS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND SPEEDS 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS (10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 20 KTS). SPEEDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. PREVAILING
GUSTS RETURN THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN 16 AND 19Z WITH SPEEDS 20-30
KTS. CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON (18-00Z) IS
40 PERCENT... THURSDAY EVENING (00-06Z) IS 90 PERCENT. FEW-SCT AOA
15 KFT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUST SPEEDS
AROUND 20 KTS. GUST FREQUENCY DECREASES OVERNIGHT BEFORE RETURNING
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS 20-30 KTS. WINDS AT KBIH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS. WEST-SOUTHWEST GUSTS RETURN THURSDAY MORNING WITH SUBSTANTIAL
MAGNITUDE UNCERTAINTY (GUSTS 30-40 KTS VS. 20-30 KTS), BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AT KDAG WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 25-35 KTS THURSDAY. WINDS AT
KEED AND KIFP WILL BRIEFLY GUST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS EXPECTED
THURSDAY. FEW-SCT AOA 15 KFT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...NICKERSON
LONG TERM...OUTLER
AVIATION...SOULAT
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