310
FXUS65 KVEF 270444
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
944 PM PDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING 14 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS BEGINNING THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
UPDATE
ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST AND SOME ADDED SURFACE MIXING ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
ACROSS MOST LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON. WE OFFICIALLY REACHED 92 DEGREES
AT KLAS WHICH IS THE WARMEST TEMP OF THE YEAR SO FAR, AND SET OR
TIED DAILY RECORDS AT NEEDLES (98F), BISHOP (82F), AND KINGMAN
(87F). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW BUT A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE AS THE RIDGE AXIS BREAKS DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGHING. IN THE MEANTIME, PLEASANT AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TOMORROW. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
NO UPDATE PLANNED.
-OUTLER-
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT BY AN INCOMING PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEATHER SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE SYSTEM TO
OVERCOME THE RIDGE, WHICH WILL LEAVE THE AREA IN A TRANSITIONAL
SYNOPTIC SETUP AS LOW PRESSURE SITS TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OF
FORCING, NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE
REGION.
AS THE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS COMPETE, WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION DUE TO THE SANDWICHED PRESSURE GRADIENT. ON THURSDAY,
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IN THE SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS TURN
WEST. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW FAVORABLE SET UPS FOR DOWNSLOPING,
THOUGH HI-RES MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BECOME AS
THEY TRANSITIONS DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES INTO THE VALLEY FLOORS.
THE OVERALL SET UP AND ENSEMBLES PROBABILITIES SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
40-50 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCLUDING STRONG
CROSSWINDS ACROSS HIGHWAY 395- THUS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODERATE WIND
IMPACTS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND IMPACTS
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER 60 MPH, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, HI-RES MODELS VARY IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AS THEY REACH THE MID TO LOWER ELEVATION.
HREF DESI 90TH PERCENTILE SUGGEST STRONGER WINDS MAKING TO HIGHWAY
395 AND IMPACTING A FEW TOWNS THURSDAY LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN INDEPENDENCE AND BIG PINE AS WELL AS
AROUND OLANCHA. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
AFTER 4 PM PT INCREASES TO 20%-40% IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.
HOWEVER, NBM PAINTS A VERY DIFFERENT STORY WITH THE 90TH
PERCENTILE REMAINING BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA AND PROBABILITIES
NEVER CLIMBING OVER 20% FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. DECIDED ON THE
WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW AS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AND THE MOST
WIDESPREAD IMPACT TO OCCUR, HOWEVER IF LATER MODEL RUNS OR
ENSEMBLES INCREASE THE CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHER WIND
IMPACTS, THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE SIERRA AND OWENS
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST
AND THE WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPING.
ELSEWHERE, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT LIKELY. THERE IS A BRIEF TIME PERIOD AFTER 4
PM PT WHERE WIND GUSTS MAY TOUCH 40 MPH IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT AS WELL AS IN PARTS OF LINCOLN COUNTY AS THE 850MB
INCREASE, BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS MIXING
ENDS. IN GENERAL, WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL GUST 25-35 MPH AT
TIMES.
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TYPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY BELT
THROUGH SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK, AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES WHERE
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE COUNTY, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE SIN THE
TERRAIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO SUGGEST
THE STRONGEST WINDS SET UP OVER THE WESTERLY GAP AROUND BARSTOW,
CA. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT ON FRIDAY, BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ADDITIONAL HI-RES MODELS AND HOW THE FIRST PART
OF THE EVENT SHAKES OUT BEFORE ISSUING ADDITIONAL WIND HEADLINES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND TO THE TRANSITIONING WEATHER SET UP.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL WORK TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS OUR REGION AND RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM MAY SAG FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SIERRA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, BUT OVERALL THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR AREA. HOWEVER, SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN PERIODIC BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS, BEFORE RISING SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONGER RANGE
CLUSTER GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON THE DETAILS BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL TROUGHS TO INFLUENCE
THE REGION AS WE BEGIN THE MONTH OF APRIL WITH BOUTS OF GUSTY SPRING
WINDS AND TEMPERATURE SWINGS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING AND PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF
30 TO 35 KNOTS LIKELY. WINDS WILL DECREASE A LITTLE THURSDAY NIGHT,
BUT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. WINDS SHOULD
FINALLY SETTLE DOWN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A QUIETER DAY
EXPECTED SATURDAY. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR WEATHER
EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE THURSDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 50 TO
70 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA CREST AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS
IN THE MOJAVE DESERT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
MODERATE TO SEVERE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY DECREASING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
IN THE BARSTOW AREA UNTIL SATURDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
10K FEET MSL, MEANING ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL BE AT RISK OF
OBSCURATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...NICKERSON
LONG TERM...OUTLER
AVIATION...MORGAN
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