362
FXUS65 KVEF 271118
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
418 AM PDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS BEGINNING TODAY, WITH
INCREASED WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MORE SEASONAL
READINGS. OTHER THAN SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SIERRA
AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
A FEW RECORD HIGHS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS SHIFTED EAST
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH. FOR STARTERS, WE WILL SEE SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES
LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK
TO BE IN THE EASTERN SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. THE
LATEST CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF WINDS GUSTS REACHING 50-70 MPH OVER THE
EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AND POTENTIALLY REACHING 50-60 MPH OVER THE
FAR WESTERN AREAS OF THE OWENS VALLEY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BIG PINE.
THESE NUMBERS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HREF WHERE EVEN THE
ENSEMBLE MINIMUMS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS OVER 60
MPH. THE NBM ISN'T QUITE AS BULLISH, BUT STILL SHOWING MEAN WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING THESE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS, HAVE ELECTED TO UPGRADE THE WIND ADVISORY TO A
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES AND THE OWENS VALLEY
WHICH WILL RUN FROM 11AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 11PM THIS EVENING.
THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT INTO
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY WHERE THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ALONG WITH
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY FROM 11AM UNTIL 4AM
FRIDAY. BOTH THE HREF AND NBM INDICATE GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING LATE
MORNING, BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE SPRING MOUNTAINS WILL SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 50
MPH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS LATE THIS
EVENING WHERE GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL OF THESE HIGHER WINDS TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN EDGES OF
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, BUT OVERALL IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. DUE TO THE SLOW NATURE OF THE TROUGH, SURFACE GRADIENTS
LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, SO THE
WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES TODAY AND THEN DROP CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY,
KEEPING HEIGHTS SUPPRESSED AND BRUSHING FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY
WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO WORK
TO KEEP REGIONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THEIR TYPICAL NORMALS FOR LATE
MARCH. THEREAFTER, A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL BE LIMITED IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS
BY FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL POSITION OUR
REGION IN A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PATTERN WITH THE STORM
TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH, THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SIERRA. MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WHERE THE WINDS NEVER
REALLY LET UP OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY MONDAY ONWARD IN EXTENDED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
VARIABILITY IN THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH TO
MOVE IN. SOME OF THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, WHILE WEAKER
SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT MORE TAME. FOR NOW,
ANTICIPATING THAT GUSTY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE START
OF APRIL, BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 12Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
MORNING AND PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF
30 TO 35 KNOTS LIKELY. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT, BUT
GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY SETTLE DOWN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH A QUIETER DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY. NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 50 TO 70
KNOTS EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA CREST AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS IN
THE MOJAVE DESERT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
MODERATE TO SEVERE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL BE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE BARSTOW AREA UNTIL
SATURDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET MSL, MEANING
ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL BE AT RISK OF OBSCURATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...OUTLER
AVIATION...MELTZER
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