221
FXUS65 KVEF 280159
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
659 PM PDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD MORE
SEASONAL READINGS. OTHER THAN SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW
END PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SPINS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. PEAK GUSTS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 30-40
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH 40-60 MPH MEASUREMENTS IN THE
OWENS VALLEY AND EASTERN SIERRA. CLOSELY MONITORING THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE OWENS VALLEY FOR SIGNS OF STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SO
FAR, GUSTS OF 55+ MPH HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE ROUND VALLEY AREA,
BUT WE'LL SEE IF THEY MATERIALIZE IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND REACH US-
395. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS, SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY, AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. HERE, WE'LL BE WATCHING THE BATTLE BETWEEN AN
ENHANCED GAP FLOW AT 850MB AND THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING THIS
EVENING. IT'S STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH VERTICAL MIXING WILL
OCCUR IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND THUS HOW STRONG THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE, BUT THE GOING EXPECTATION IS GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH, WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES PULL BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL VALUES TOMORROW AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS GUSTY
CONDITIONS PERSIST. LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (10-30%) EXIST IN THE
SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL DECREASE AS MIXING END AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES. IN ADDITION, THE DOWNSLOPE WIND POTENTIAL WILL END
TONIGHT BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10 PM AS THE MOUNTAIN WAVE SET UP BECOMES
LESS FAVORABLE AND THE OVERALL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST VS WEST.
A BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE
LOW CENTER REMAINING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, HOWEVER A
SHORTWAVE WILL DIG THROUGH THE MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL HELP KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT
IN PARTS OF OF THE AREA. IN PARTICULAR, A 850MB 30 MPH-40 MPH
WILL BE DRAPED OVER SAN BERNARDINO THROUGH CLARK AND LINCOLN
COUNTY WHICH IS WHERE THERE IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO
REMAIN GUSTY AND IMPACTFUL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ALL NIGHT IS IN
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH THE BARSTOW, CA AREA, WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAT WIND IMPACTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY
MORNING IN FAR SOUTHERN CLARK AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS AS THE INCOMING WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILE.
ON FRIDAY, CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS
OVERALL THE 850MB JET DOES DIMINISH BUT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL STILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA AND COULD ENHANCE
WINDS. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON VARY AS WELL. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
CONTINUED IMPACTS AS THE 850MB BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IS LOW. 850MB
WINDS DO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT- BUT THE
OVERNIGHT WIND GUST POTENTIAL IS LOWER THAN TONIGHT AS THE PIECE
OF ENERGY THAT HELPS KEEP THINGS MIXED TONIGHT WILL MOVE AWAY.
DECIDED TO WAIT TO DECIDE TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, OR IF THERE IS ENOUGH TO GET WIND GUSTS THAT
WOULD IMPACTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT. IF WINDS TONIGHT OVER PERFORM OF IF
FRIDAY MORNING REMAIN ELEVATED- THIS WILL BE A GOOD INDICATOR THAT
IMPACTFUL WINDS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE LOWER AND IMPACTS ARE NOT
LIKELY AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE I-15 AREA AND
TO THE SOUTH, AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH
OF THE I-15.
OTHER THAN THE WIND, NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS IT WILL
REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, BUT WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TOMORROW COMPARED TO HOW
WARM IS HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY,
KEEPING HEIGHTS SUPPRESSED AND BRUSHING FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY
WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO WORK
TO KEEP REGIONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THEIR TYPICAL NORMALS FOR LATE
MARCH. THEREAFTER, A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST BUT WILL BE LIMITED IN NORTHWARD PROGRESS
BY FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL POSITION OUR
REGION IN A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PATTERN WITH THE STORM
TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH, THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SIERRA. MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WHERE THE WINDS NEVER
REALLY LET UP OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY MONDAY ONWARD IN EXTENDED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
VARIABILITY IN THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH TO
MOVE IN. SOME OF THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, WHILE WEAKER
SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP CONDITIONS A BIT MORE TAME. FOR NOW,
ANTICIPATING THAT GUSTY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO THE START
OF APRIL, BUT WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH PEAK SPEEDS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS. CHANCE OF GUSTS
EXCEEDING 35 KTS AT THE TERMINAL IS 20-30 PERCENT BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z AND 40-50 PERCENT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. GUST SPEED AND FREQUENCY
DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAIN ELEVATED
BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS, WITH GUST POTENTIAL RETURNING FRIDAY EVENING.
SCT-BKN AOA 15 KFT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH PEAK SPEEDS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS AT LAS VEGAS VALLEY
TAF SITES. KDAG WILL EXPERIENCE WEST GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KTS,
AND KEED / KIFP WILL EXPERIENCE SOUTH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS.
KBIH WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE SIERRA
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL UNDERGO A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST TONIGHT THAT WILL REDUCE GUSTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS WIND SHIFT, WHICH MAY BE
ASSISTED BY WEAK VIRGA SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS EVENING. FAVORING A
00-04Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHIFT. SCT-BKN AOA 15 KFT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
UPDATE...WOODS
SHORT TERM...NICKERSON
LONG TERM...OUTLER
AVIATION...SOULAT
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